Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
There’s only six games on tonight’s evening MLB slate and these are the home run bets I’m backing on the DraftKings Sportsbook: Aaron Judge, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Yoan Moncada.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run (+380)
I know what you’re thinking: Who the heck is McCade Brown? That’s exactly the point. Brown is yet another spot starter for the Rockies, in what seems like an endless line of computer generated names. I honestly feel a little bad for the 25-year-old. Brown was having a lovely time dominating High-A and Double-A batters in 2025, now he’s been summoned to Colorado, where he’s allowed 13 earned runs in 9.1 innings. He’s clearly not ready for the MLB level, particularly opposing RHBs, as Brown’s conceded a massive .739 slugging percentage within the split across his three starts. Fernando Tatis Jr. is a right-handed bat. Tatis also has three home runs in his past seven games. Add in the fact that the veteran sports a 95th percentile average exit velocity (93.3) and a 92nd expected wOBA (.381) for the season as a whole, and you’re looking at someone in a very dangerous spot on Thursday evening.
Yoan Moncada 1+ Home Run (+537)
He hasn’t played enough games for it to matter all that much, but Yoan Moncada has been very good, when available, for the Angels in 2025. The switch-hitter has been especially great when given the opportunity to hit from the left-hand side of the dish, slashing .250/.351/.500 with all 12 of his home runs against RHPs. That includes a three-run long ball off the Twins on Tuesday in Moncada’s last contest. The former top prospect will have the opportunity to hunt for home run No. 13 this evening in a matchup with the struggling Bryce Miller. The right-hander is having by far the worst season of his career, registering a 5.53 ERA and a matching 5.53 xERA. Miller’s served up 1.95 homers per nine to opposing LHBs, the direct result of a first percentile opponent average exit velocity (92.4). Miller’s even been consistently giving up home runs at T-Mobile Park. That’s hard to do!
Aaron Judge 1+ Home Run (+218)
There’s no point in messing around or getting too cute here. When Aaron Judge’s home run prop odds are above +200, that’s almost an automatic bet, especially with a bullpen day on tap for the Tigers. Despite missing time on the IL, Judge still ranks second in baseball in expected home runs (43.7), trailing only Cal Raleigh (44.8). Judge also remains in possession of 100th percentile marks in expected wOBA (.457), expected slugging rate (.704) and barrel rate (24.5%). The man is a hard hitting machine. Tyler Holton will open tonight’s tilt in the Bronx, but’s it’s the expected bulk arm, Sawyer Gipson-Long, who really has my eye. Gibson-Long has pitched to an ugly 5.62 xERA over his 29.0 innings at the MLB level in 2025. Opposing RHBs have been his largest issue, as Gipson-Long has surrendered 4.76 long balls per nine within the split, along with a .448 wOBA. Woof.
