After a fantastic battle of historic NFC franchises on Thursday Night Football in Week 1, we get a little more of the same in Week 2, as the Commanders visit the Packers at Lambeau Field. For as much as a matchup between these two squads makes you want to look ahead to the postseason, this article isn’t about getting too far ahead of itself. In fact, it’s an article about immediate gratification.
Who will be the first touchdown scorer on TNF? Let’s break down the odds and make a couple picks.
Commanders vs. Packers First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Tucker Kraft First Touchdown Scorer (+1100)
The easy pick on the Packers side of the ball is Josh Jacobs (+350), who has proven year after year to be one of the NFL’s top goal line weapons. However, let’s look a little further down the board and focus on Tucker Kraft. Like Jacobs, Kraft found the end zone last Sunday against the Lions, which makes sense, given that the tight end finished 2024 as the only Green Bay skill position player with a target share above 20% inside the opponent’s 20. We know that Matt LaFleur’s system tends to not be heliocentric in any way. There is no clear-cut WR1 on this roster, both in terms of talent and in terms of volume. That can make choosing the right Packers’ wideout on a week-to-week basis very annoying in fantasy and betting. So, why not just pivot to tight end and back the guy that’s always on the field? Kraft lined up for 91.7% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps in Week 1. He ran a route on 18 of 23 passing snaps. His role, unlike most of his teammates, is clearly defined.
Deebo Samuel First Touchdown Scorer (+1300)
Backing Deebo Samuel to score the first touchdown feels like you’re maximizing the Commanders’ high-leverage opportunities. While it’s obviously unlikely that Samuel will find the end zone every single week on a 19-yard reverse, it’s not like we haven’t seen offensive coordinators use the wideout in the running game consistently throughout his career. It’s an indisputable element of his skill set and, honestly, Samuel’s body type helps him profile more like a goal line back than either Austin Ekeler (+1300) or Jacory Croskey-Merritt (+1200). That’s also just a tertiary aspect of Samuel’s overall value. The veteran wideout registered 10 targets in Week 1 against the Giants — double the volume of any other Washington player. Add in a 93.9% route rate on passing snaps and it’s difficult to deny Samuel’s tantalizing role within his new team.
