The Jets and the Steelers entered Week 1 with a total of 38.5. They combined for 66 points. What a surprise! A 41-year old Aaron Rodgers led scoring drive after scoring drive while Justin Fields not only survived but thrived, much to the delight of the Fields hive. I apologize that I forgot to jive last week, but no need to look bleak because I’m back again midweek to peek into Week 2. We got Jaguars, Bears, Lions, Rams, Dolphins, Seahawks, Ravens, Broncos, Colts and Eagles. What a zoo! Which players will break through and which players will screw you? I haven’t a clue but I will go through all that I can so come Sunday, it’s just deja vu.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, five games have spreads of three points or less. The biggest favorite is Baltimore at home over Cleveland by 11.5 points. Five games have a total of at least 45 points, with CIN/JAX the highest at 48.5 points. The lowest total is the SEA/PIT game at 39.5 points. There are five home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills at New York Jets ($7,100) – Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts are all appealing options and within $300 of each other. They all have rushing equity, but here’s why I’m going with Allen…at least for now. Many moons will come and go before Sunday.
The Baltimore Ravens are the biggest favorite on the slate and Derrick Henry looks spry. Volume could be an issue for Jackson and Cleveland has done a relatively good job against him over the last two seasons. Jackson has not gone for at least 30 FPTS in the last four meetings and was held below 20 FPTS once. On the flip side, Jackson has had some of his biggest fantasy games in blowouts and Baltimore could sweep the leg after losing to Buffalo in the opener.
Hurts gets a Super Bowl rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs, and both offenses should put up some points. Hurts is going to do damage on the ground, but it’s unlikely that he throws at least 30 times, which puts a damper on any kind of ceiling.
The Jets “limited” Allen to 24.4 and 23 FPTS last season, but this is a new regime and Aaron Rodgers just carved them up in Week 1. The tiebreaker, though, is that Allen possesses the most upside out of all three options. Last season, he went over 40 FPTS twice with a high of 54.9 FPTS. In Week 1 against Baltimore, Allen put up 41.8 FPTS.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($7,000), Jalen Hurts ($6,800), Joe Burrow ($6,600), Patrick Mahomes ($6,200)
Value
Justin Fields, New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills ($5,700) – Fields carved up a usually-solid Pittsburgh defense in Week 1, going 16-of-22 for 218 yards and a touchdown while rushing 12 times for 48 yards and two touchdowns, good for 29.52 FPTS. Now, we have lived the Fields experience enough to know that the lows are just as low as this high, but at least the Jets coaching staff is playing to the strengths of Fields and not trying to force a square peg into a round hole. The rushing prowess of Fields is the main allure, but the Bills will likely be scoring points in this one, which means all systems go for an aggressive Fields.
Other Options – Jared Goff ($6,000), Trevor Lawrence ($5,600), Drake Maye ($5,200), Daniel Jones ($5,200), Joe Flacco ($5,000)
Running Back
Stud
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($6,800) – Brown only put up 13.1 FPTS in Week 1 as he could only muster 43 yards on 21 carries while hauling in two of three targets for eight yards. He did score a rushing touchdown, though. The Cleveland Browns know Cincinnati well and have done a decent job recently of defending the potent Bengals offensive attack. It’s a much different matchup for Cincinnati this week, taking on a Jaguars defense that stymied the Carolina Panthers in Week 1, but were one of the worst units last season, both against the run and pass. Brown played 75% of the snaps at running back and led the team with six red zone opportunities in Week 1. The total of 48.5 is the highest on the main slate so the environment should be a friendly one for fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Derrick Henry ($8,200), Saquon Barkley ($8,000), Christian McCaffrey ($7,500), James Conner ($6,600)
Value
Dylan Sampson, Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens ($5,200) – The Browns are the biggest underdog on the slate at 11.5 points. Joe Flacco will probably have to go wacco from the pocket and over 40 pass attempts seems likely. Sampson played 43% of the running back snaps in Week 1 while Jerome Ford received 54%. Sampson had eight targets, though, and four red zone opportunities while Ford finished with one and two respectively. Baltimore allowed six receptions to running backs in Week 1, the fifth-most. Last season, the Ravens allowed the ninth-most receptions to running backs.
Other Options – Chuba Hubbard ($6,000), Tony Pollard ($5,900), Travis Etienne Jr. ($5,700), J.K. Dobbins ($5,600), TreVeyon Henderson ($5,500)
Wide Receiver
Stud
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants ($7,800) – Lamb hauled in seven of 13 targets for 110 yards in Week 1. The Cowboys offensive line, which was ranked 23rd by PFF entering the season, played well in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles. Sure, the loss of Jalen Carter was massive, but Dak Prescott did an excellent job of getting the ball out quickly. He did not take a sack and was only pressured 34.3% in Week 1. The Giants have a formidable defensive line, but the secondary is weak. Lamb should be peppered with plenty of targets.
Other Options – Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), Puka Nacua ($7,600), Malik Nabers ($7,100), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,000), Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,700), Garrett Wilson ($6,500), Courtland Sutton ($6,300), Tee Higgins ($6,100)
Value
Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens ($4,300) – As mentioned in the Flacco section, there’s as good chance that Flacco attempts over 40 passes in this one. In Week 1, Tillman tied Jerry Jeudy with eight targets while playing the same amount of snaps at 88%. Tillman also had one red zone look.
Other Options – Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,000), Davante Adams ($5,900), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,800), Jameson Williams ($5,700), Jerry Jeudy ($5,300), Ricky Pearsall ($5,300), Travis Hunter ($5,200), Hollywood Brown ($5,200), Chris Olave ($4,900), Calvin Ridley ($4,900), Calvin Austin III ($4,700), Kayshon Boutte ($4,500) if he plays, Dyami Brown ($4,200), Elic Ayomanor ($3,200)
Tight End
Stud
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos ($4,700) – Warren garnered a 73% snap share in Week 1 with nine targets. He also had two red zone opportunities, with one being a rush for three yards and a touchdown. The nine targets led the Colts. The Broncos have an impressive secondary but the defense allowed the eighth-most receptions to tight ends last season.
Other Options – Trey McBride ($6,000), Travis Kelce ($5,000), Sam LaPorta ($4,800)
Value
Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens ($3,100) – If you’ve made it this far, then you know that I think there’s a good chance that Flacco attempts over 40 passes in this one. The rookie Fannin was impressive in Week 1, hauling in seven of nine targets for 63 yards. The Browns utilized 12 personnel 49.3% in Week 1, the second-highest rate. Fannin played 72% of the snaps. He also received one red zone opportunity.
Other Options – Hunter Henry ($4,000), Jake Ferguson ($3,800), Juwan Johnson ($3,600), Brenton Strange ($3,600), Chig Okonkwo ($3,300)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Steelers DST vs. Seattle Seahawks ($3,100) – The Steelers defense was Temu Steel Curtain in Week 1, as Justin Fields did whatever he wanted. That game was on the road. This game is at home for the season opener. In addition, Sam Darnold is no Justin Fields and defensive coordinator Teryl Austin will likely do his best to make Darnold see ghosts all game. Pittsburgh blitzed 34.6% of the time in Week 1, the seventh-highest rate. Sam Darnold had an EPA per dropback of -0.49 against the blitz in Week 1, the seventh-worst mark.
Other Options – Ravens DST ($3,700), 49ers DST ($3,600), Cardinals DST ($3,400), Rams DST ($3,100)
Value
Patriots DST at Miami Dolphins ($2,800) – I don’t think the Dolphins are as bad as they looked in Week 1. That said, I thought Anthony Richardson would be a great fantasy asset. I’m a stupid, stupid man. This game is in Miami, so the Dolphins could get a home field boost as well as the sweltering heat that could affect the Patriots. But the offensive line is still porous for Miami and Tua Tagovailoa struggles with pressure. In Week 1, he posted an EPA per dropback of -1.09 against the blitz, the fifth-lowest mark. New England blitzed at the second-highest rate in Week 1.
Other Options – Dolphins DST ($2,900), Colts DST ($2,600), Giants DST ($2,600)
