Earlier this week, the Colorado Rockies gave the Los Angeles Dodgers some breathing room atop the NL West, as the Dodgers’ sweep put them three games ahead of the San Diego Padres atop the division. Colorado could now give the Padres the same gift, as the teams’ four-game set will start tonight. Los Angeles has a tough 10-game stretch coming up, with seven games against the San Francisco Giants and three against the Philadelphia Phillies.
San Diego’s series against the Rockies will begin with a 9:40 p.m. ET game at Petco Park. Randy Vásquez will start for the Padres, while McCade Brown toes the rubber for Colorado.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres prediction, preview
The Rockies’ offense was absolutely impotent in the sweep against the Dodgers. In the series opener on Monday, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Treinen recorded eight no-hit innings before Ryan Ritter finally got to Tanner Scott. The next day, Emmet Sheehan was perfect through five innings before Kyle Karros recorded the first of Colorado’s three hits. Blake Snell, who pitched last night, was arguably the worst Los Angeles starter, conceding two hits in six innings while striking out 11. San Diego hasn’t been great, either, losing two of three to the Cincinnati Reds, but it took two of three at Coors Field last weekend. One of those Padres wins featured tonight’s pitching matchup.
Vásquez got the better of Brown that night, completing the sixth inning and conceding three runs (two earned) on eight hits. The Dominican hasn’t been great this season, posting a 5.18 FIP, but his defense and offense have backed him up enough that San Diego is 15-9 in his starts and his 3.91 ERA is a solid mark. Advanced numbers are extremely unkind to him, as his 5.85 expected ERA ranks in just the third percentile league-wide, but he can’t help the fact that he plays with Fernando Tatís Jr., one of the league’s best defenders. Vásquez has posted a solid 3.77 ERA at home this season in a sample size too large to merely be a fluke.
Brown, meanwhile, has been poor in each of his first three MLB starts, pitching to a 12.54 ERA (8.18 FIP) and recording more strikeouts than walks. Though he hasn’t been helped by the fact that two of his starts have come at home, his one road start was a 3.2-inning, five-hit, four-run effort against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have had one of the league’s worst offenses this season. He doesn’t fare any better by advanced statistics, excelling only at avoiding hard hits, although even that is partially a function of a bottom-decile whiff rate. The silver lining for the sinker-baller is the fact that he had a 2.47 ERA in 76.2 innings between High-A and Double-A this season, so he could figure it out at the MLB level soon.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Diego Padres -1.5 (-126)
Taking the Padres at barely minus-odds despite the Rockies’ horrific form feels like a steal. It’s always possible that this is the start in which Brown puts it together, but until he does, backing San Diego to win comfortably feels fair.
Strong Lean: Randy Vásquez O15.5 Outs Recorded (+130)
Both bullpens are poorly-rested, given that each team most recently had a rest day last Friday and will next have one on Monday. However, the Padres will have a difficult road series against the New York Mets right after the rest day, so they have more incentive to be conservative with their relief corps.
