Nothing like an early-season test between two Super Bowl contenders to really kick off an NFL season. On Thursday night, the Green Bay Packers and Washington Commanders square off in what could be an NFC playoff preview. One of the major storylines has been the balance of Green Bay’s receiving corps, and young stud receiver Jayden Reed has been at the heart of that. He’ll get a chance to prove his spot in the pecking order against Washington.
The Packers are -3 favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook, and are -170 on the moneyline. The Commanders are road underdogs at +142. Our total is set at 48.5 points. Let’s get into the best Jayden Reed prop for this game.
Week 1 Breakdown
In a Week 1 matchup with the Lions, the Packers had control from start to finish. They were up two scores after their first two drives and never let Detroit back in the picture. It’s the kind of game they want to play: control the time of possession early, let the defense go to work, and lean on the run game. So, while Reed led the team in targets and catches, scoring a touchdown, it’s tough to parse out how this translates to future usage.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love completed 16 passes, which went to 10 different receivers. Some of that is due to the lead they had, while some is due to how Matt LaFleur wants to run things. But the snap count is worth noting. Reed was fourth amongst Packers receivers in snap count, taking only a 38% share of the total, while Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, and Dontayvion Wicks all saw higher shares. And that’s where the concern comes in.
Perhaps Reed is being passed by in the rotation. The quasi-blowout nature of the game certainly played a role. Alternatively, LaFleur may be taking a more egalitarian approach to his receiving core, rotating everyone so he gets a look at them all. It all adds up to the same thing: Reed is not playing as much as a receiver of his caliber should. Even against a subpar Commanders secondary, it’s enough reason to fade him.
