NFL Week 2 gets off to a flying start with a great NFC matchup on Thursday Night Football between the Washington Commanders and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Both teams are coming off a win and looking to make a statement that they are serious playoff contenders. One significant change from last year’s Commanders team that made a run to the NFC Championship Game is in the backfield, where Jacory Croskey-Merritt has emerged as a key part of the running back rotation. Will “Bill” be up the the challenge again in Week 2, or will he come back to earth against a tough Packers defense?
Here are the best Jacory Croskey-Merritt prop bets for Commanders vs. Packers on Thursday Night Football to kick off the Week 2 slate.
Best Jacory Croskey-Merritt prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
The Commanders drafted Croskey-Merritt in the seventh round out of Arizona and have quickly pushed the rookie up their depth chart. In fact, they were so high on him that they moved on from key contributor Brian Robinson Jr. via trade before Week 1.
While the rookie didn’t start in Week 1, he did make some big plays after taking over from Austin Ekeler. He totaled 82 rushing yards and a touchdown on 10 carries while playing 47% of snaps and getting 50% of the Commanders’ carries.
He got free for a 42-yard run in the fourth quarter after scoring a six-yard touchdown in the second quarter. While his usage makes him a little high-risk, it also tilts the odds more in his favor. He’ll likely continue to rotate with Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols this week, with Deebo Samuel Sr. and Jayden Daniels also taking some rushing attempts as well. Deebo had a rushing score, and Daniels finished with a team-high 11 carries in the Commanders’ 21-10 victory in Week 1.
The matchup for Croskey-Merritt will be a tough one with the Packers favored by 3.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. If the Commanders play from behind, they could have to rely more on passing-focused formations, leaning the backfield timeshare more towards Ekeler. In their Week 1 win, the Packers defense held the Lions’ excellent running backs to just 44 rushing yards on 20 carries.
Jahmyr Gibbs was very involved as a receiver to save his fantasy day, but Detroit’s ground game could never get in gear. Since Croskey-Merritt’s role is mostly as a rusher (he failed to catch his only target in Week 1), he could be in for a very limited day in Green Bay.
While I’m not confident he’ll have a monster day in this matchup, I still want to back the rookie, who I’m very high on for season-long fantasy. Taking the under on his rushing total of 39.5 rushing yards feels like a hater move and also one that Bill can break with just one long run. As a result, I don’t feel confident in his game over/under for rushing yards in either direction.
He could be up against the game script as well if the contest requires the Commanders to pass more. Last week, Croskey-Merritt didn’t get his first carry until the second quarter either, so even taking his low over/under in first quarter yards is a little high-risk for me. The spot that I do like backing him is with his first-half rushing total.
Last week, he had 24 rushing yards by halftime, doing great work in the second quarter when he ultimately got into the end zone as well. The Commanders should still be in the game enough to get Croskey-Merritt meaningful carries in the first half, and if he breaks into open space like he did last week on that long run against the Giants, Bill could hit this over with just one good run.
Best Bet: Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 18.5 rushing yards in the first half (-117)
