This is the finale of a three-game series in Chicago between the White Sox and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Ian Seymour is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay while Shane Smith is slated to start for Chicago.
Rays at White Sox prediction, preview
Ian Seymour is a lefty who averages 91.9 mph on the fastball and has thrown 37.1 innings this season. They have been fantastic innings, as the 2.89 ERA is supported by the 2.80 FIP. The strikeout rate is a whopping 30.1% while the walk rate is 7.7%. He’s allowed three home runs. The barrel rate is only 5.3% and the hard-hit rate is 37.9%. The swinging-strike rate is a robust 13.7% but the chase rate is only 26.5%. His bread and butter is the changeup with a 5.1 run value.
All three home runs have been served up at home. The K-BB% is above 20% to both righties and lefties. The K-BB% is 23.7% on the road and 18.6% at home. The 5.04 FIP at home vs. 1.64 is due to the home run discrepancy.
Most of Seymour’s appearances have been out of the bullpen. He’s made two starts and going five innings in both. He’s allowed more than three earned once – six earned runs against the Yankees at home.
Against left-handed pitching, the White Sox rank 16th in strikeout rate and 11th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 16th in the MLB.
Shane Smith has pitched 125.1 innings this season. The fastball averages 95.7 mph and the ERA is 3.95. The FIP is higher at 4.45 as the BABIP is only .247. The strikeout rate is solid at 22.3% but the walk rate is high at 9.8%. Smith has allowed 16 home runs and the hard-hit rate is 47.4%. The swinging-strike rate is 11.9% but the chase rate is 26.3%.
12 of the 16 home runs have come off the bat of lefties. 10 of the 16 home runs have been served up on the road. Most of the numbers are similar against righties and lefties, with the difference showing in the home runs. He’s been slightly more effective on the road, but once again, the home run discrepancy shows.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rays have the 12th-highest strikeout rate, the 15th-best ISO, and rank 11th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Tampa Bay ranks fourth in FIP while Chicago ranks 12th.
Rays at White Sox pick, best bet
I like the Rays’ pitching in this one while I think the Tampa Bay offense gets busy, but not that busy enough to take the game over the total.
