With time running out on the MLB regular season, the race for the NL Wild Card gets all the more interesting with each passing day. The Cincinnati Reds (73-72) sit three games back of the final spot while the San Diego Padres (79-66) have a three-game lead of the second of the three Wild Card spots. Tonight, these teams finish out a three-game series which saw San Diego take game one before Cincinnati bounced back last night.
How will the final outing of this set play out? Find out with a Padres vs. Reds prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday.
Padres vs. Reds prediction, preview
The Padres seek their 80th win of the campaign tonight in front of the home crowd at Petco Park, where the team holds a 44-26 record. They’re one of the top performers at their own ballpark, but the offense will need to rebound from a recent cold stretch to come out with a series victory. San Diego sits 21st in scoring over the last two weeks with 4.58 runs per game in their last 12 contests, and they’ve gone just 4-6 over their last 10. The Padres are one of the best teams in batting average this season and their .251 mark over that span isn’t bad by any means, but they’ve mustered just a .707 OPS that ranks 20th in baseball. When their average drops off slightly and they don’t turn as many extra bases, a lack of power can be a killer for this team with just 11 homers in the same sample, tied for the fourth-fewest. However, the Padres are still limiting strikeouts, though their walk rate is down.
In the other dugout, the Reds are 5-5 across their last 10 games and just 33-38 on the road overall this season. They’ve largely hung in there against teams above .500 at 40-41, but tonight does still provide quite the challenge. Cincinnati ranks 18th in scoring in the last two weeks with an average of 4.83 runs per contest. They’ve seen a slight uptick from a very rough patch at the plate and have a .249 average and .750 OPS over that span, so there’s some reason to believe they can hang in there in tonight’s contest. They also out-hit the Padres in both games of the series, though the Reds haven’t lit up the scoring column in either contest with a combined seven runs. However, Cincy has now bashed 17 homers in their last 12 matchups, which ties them for the sixth-most in baseball. While they’re ninth in walks drawn over the same two-week sample, the Reds also have the sixth-most strikeouts of any team.
Padres vs. Reds pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Padres enter as -144 home favorites on the Moneyline while the Reds are +119 road underdogs. The run total sits at just 7.5 for the matchup with the under favored at -113 odds.
The pitcher matchup looks like a very underrated duel between quality arms. On the mound tonight for San Diego is Nick Pivetta (2.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 172 SO in 164.1 IP). He faces left-hander Andrew Abbott (2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 130 SO in 143.2 IP) on the bump for Cincinnati. Neither player throws particularly hard, but they both excel at limiting runs through different means. Pivetta boasts an 80th-percentile strikeout percentage but falls below the league average in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Abbott looks like the inverse, failing to strike out a ton of batters but ranking in the 85th and 90th percentiles of each metric.
However, Abbott’s been a little bit unpredictable in recent weeks after allowing four or more earned runs in three of six starts since August 6. In his three most recent outings, he allowed six, two, and five earned runs as well. Compare that to Pivetta, who hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last five starts and only gave up three or more earned runs once since June 20. With such a track record, I expect him to get the better of the Reds’ lineup and power the Padres to a win tonight.
Best bet: SD Padres ML (-144)
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