It appears that the race for the NL East is over. Following last night’s 9-3 victory, the Phillies hold a commanding nine-game lead over the Mets for first place. Still, both clubs have plenty to play for going forward. Philadelphia is hoping to catch the Brewers and earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Mets are just hoping to make it in, as the surging Giants have pulled to within three games of a wildcard spot. Heading into tonight’s matchup, which of these two rivals will come out on top? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s battle between the Mets and the Phillies.
Philadelphia is favored (-172) over New York, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Mets vs. Phillies prediction, preview
To stop this most recent Mets slide, it’ll be up to Clay Holmes. The right-hander has been a pleasant surprise this season, undergoing a fairly seamless transition from reliever to starter. Through 147.0 innings of work, the right-hander owns a 3.61 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 117 strikeouts. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but the veteran has offered up some much-needed consistency for New York’s rotation. Holmes has surrendered more than three runs in just five of his 28 appearances this year.
With that being said, this will be the 32-year-old’s first-ever start at Citizens Bank Park. That’s not an enviable position for any pitcher to be in. The Phillies are averaging 5.34 runs per game at home, the second-best mark in baseball. The club comes into Wednesday having scored 27 runs over their previous five outings. To make matters worse for the Mets, Philadelphia owns the league’s second-highest batting average vs. right-handed pitching.
Factoring all that in, it might take a Herculean effort on offense for New York to win tonight. That won’t be easy against Cristopher Sanchez. The All-Star is Philadelphia’s undisputed ace now that Zack Wheeler (shoulder) is out for the season. Through 28 outings, Sanchez has recorded a 2.60 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 186 strikeouts. However, the southpaw has had his struggles in this matchup. Sanchez has surrendered a total of eight earned runs over 7.1 innings vs. the Mets in 2025. Since August 1st, New York owns an .829 OPS vs. lefties, second-best in the league during that time.
Mets vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Mets vs. Phillies over 7.5 runs (-115)
At -172 on the moneyline, there isn’t much value on backing the Phillies tonight. However, it’s impossible to trust the Mets right now given their lackluster play recently. Instead, the safest play could be the over. New York has had success vs. Sanchez, and Holmes is unproven in Philadelphia. Expect these two star-studded lineups to break the scoring open on Wednesday.
