The Kansas City Royals are in Cleveland visiting the Guardians in an American League Central matchup between two teams chasing the Mariners in the race for the Wild Card as well. The Guardians have taken the first two games of this four-game set, and they’ll look to make it three in a row on Wednesday night. Let’s dive into the matchup and see what to expect from the Royals-Guardians matchup this Wednesday night, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET.
The Guardians improved to 74-70 with their two wins to start the week, while the Royals slipped to 73-72. The Mariners are 77-68 coming into play on Wednesday and have the lead for the third and final AL Wild Card spot by 2.5 games over the Guardians and 4.0 games over the Royals. Kansas City has been hanging on the edge of the playoff picture for a while, but could fade out quickly if it can’t turn things around after going 3-6 in its last nine games and dropping three straight. The Guardians have won five straight and six of their last seven.
The Guardians are -183 home favorites in this matchup, with the run total at eight. Let’s preview this Wednesday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Royals at Guardians prediction, preview
The Guardians will start Logan Allen on Wednesday against Jonathan Bowlan for the Royals. Allen has struggled badly in his last several outings and is 7-11 on the season with a 4.46 ERA and 4.64 FIP. He was more effective early in the year but has allowed 23 runs in 25 2/3 innings over his last five starts while giving up four homers and a 40.2% hard-hit rate.
Allen hasn’t faced the Royals this year, but he has gone 0-4 in his five career starts against Kansas City with a 6.26 ERA and 17 runs allowed in 23 innings. Maikel Garcia has gone 5-for-12 with a double and a home run against Allen in their past meetings, while Bobby Witt Jr. is 7-for-23 with two doubles in his career against Allen.
The Royals will hopefully get good run support for Bowlan, who will serve as the opener for a bullpen game. Bowlan has worked at least two innings in five of his 26 games this season and has worked 3 1/3 innings against the Guardians, giving up five hits and two runs. Luinder Avila, Sam Long and Daniel Lynch IV could all be part of the Royals’ patchwork pitching plan for this Wednesday.
The Guardians’ offense has been streaky all season, and the team seems to run hot and cold together. Over the last week, they’ve scored the fifth-most runs in the majors with an average of 4.9 runs per game and a team batting average of .269 with a .330 wOBA. They don’t typically hit for a ton of power but put together good at-bats and rely on clutch hitting.
The Royals’ offense has struggled most of the year, with Garcia and Witt a few of the rare bright spots. They have only scored a total of three runs in their last three games, but facing Allen could be exactly what they need to get back on track. They did have 11 runs against the Twins last Saturday and rank in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories over the last month, while the Guardians are near the bottom of most categories over that timeframe despite their success over the last week.
Royals at Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Total Runs over 8 (-109)
The offenses for these teams aren’t great, but this run total is too low for the starting pitching situation. Allen has been struggling, and the Royals have hit him well enough in the past to expect them to get some runs, while the Guardians have looked much better lately. Of the 11 games between these teams this season, six have had at least eight runs scored.
Strong Lean: Bobby Witt over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Witt has multiple total bases in 75 of his 140 games (54%) and has a history of success against Allen. He missed a few games with a back issue, but he went 1-for-4 in his return on Tuesday. Before his absence, he had over this total base line in nine of his last 16 games (56%).
