It is a complex and contentious time in the American League — especially in regard to the playoff picture.
With their stunning 4-3 comeback victory on Tuesday night, the Blue Jays now sit relatively comfortably atop the AL East, three games up on both the Yankees and the Red Sox with the tiebreaker in hand. Still, in no way can the team rest on its laurels, and Toronto will continue to miss Bo Bichette (knee) after the star shortstop was placed on the IL yesterday afternoon.
Things are less optimistic with Houston. After yet another underwhelming Bryan Abreu performance, the Astros have dropped seven of their last 10 contests and now hold just a one-game advantage in the AL West over the Mariners. Heck, the upstart Rangers are suddenly just 2.5 games back of Houston in the Wild Card hunt.
Can the Astros get things back on track north of the border? Let’s preview this pivotal matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
While this is a battle of teams headed towards the postseason, you wouldn’t really know it from tonight’s pitching matchup. Let’s start with Jose Berrios. You can tell all you need to know about Toronto’s current level of confidence in Berrios with how little he’s pitched the past three weeks. Remember, the right-hander is an iron man. No one has started more contests since the beginning of 2018 than Berrios (232). However, dating back to August 24, Berrios has only made one appearance and it went terribly, surrendering six runs (two earned) to the Reds over only two innings of work. Woof. In a larger sample, Berrios has struggled to a 5.47 ERA and a 5.23 FIP across his past 11 starts. It’s not hard to see why the Jays have recently shied away from their Opening Day starter.
On the other side, Jason Alexander hasn’t been doing much better. The Astros getting anything resembling league-average production from a 32-year-old journeyman is commendable, but it hasn’t been pretty. Across 59.2 innings of work at the MLB level in 2025, Alexander has registered a 4.68 ERA and a 5.05 FIP. Specific to his last four outings, Alexander has failed to pitch six innings in three of the four games and he’s surrendered a total of six opponent home runs within the stretch. It’s far from the ideal form to have when facing a Toronto lineup that ranks first in wRC+ (133) and fourth in ISO (.198) since the All-Star break.
Houston’s bats have also been a little underwhelming as of late, though it’s worth noting just how amazing Yordan Alvarez has been playing since coming back from a lengthy IL stint. After yet another three-hit showing on Tuesday, Alvarez is now slashing .444/.536/.711 with a 238 wRC+ in his last 56 plate appearances. For those with a BvP inclination, Alvarez is 3-for-16 off Berrios in the pair’s prior meetings, though two of those three hits have left the park.
Astros vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 9 (-111)
Bad starting pitching aside, the Jays have hit the over in 61.8% of their home games this season — the highest mark in baseball.
Strong Lean: Yordan Alvarez 2+ Total Bases (+100)
Alvarez has multiple hits in six of his last nine games and possesses a 238 wRC+ since returning from injury.
