This is the finale of a three-game series in Toronto between the Blue Jays and visiting Houston Astros.
Cristian Javier is scheduled to pitch for Houston while Kevin Gausman is slated to start for Toronto.
Astros at Blue Jays prediction, preview
Cristian Javier only pitched 34.2 innings last season due to Tommy John surgery. Upon his return, he’s only racked up 20.1 innings this season. Javier always had control issues, but they have become more pronounced after surgery, which is a common thing. The walk rate is 13.5% while the strikeout rate is 22.5%. The ERA is 4.43 while the FIP is 4.37. The average exit velocity is 88.3 mph and the barrel rate is only 5.4%.
Javier has allowed two home runs this season, both at home. The numbers are similar for both righties and lefties. The K-BB% is -7.1% on the road while the FIP is almost two runs higher than at home.
In five starts, Javier has allowed more than three earned runs once. He’s gone at least six innings once. This will be his first time facing Toronto this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays rank 29th in strikeout rate and 13th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks third in MLB.
Kevin Gausman has been pretty consistent throughout his career. Sure, there were a few blips in terms of ERA and the strikeout rate was in the double-digits for a few seasons, but by and large, Gausman has had a K/9 in the 8s, a BB/9 in the mid-2s and a HR/9 around 1 with an ERA and FIP in the mid-3s. Through 168.2 innings this season, the ERA of 3.63 is supported by the 3.68 FIP. The strikeout rate is 24% while the walk rate is 6.5%. He’s allowed 21 home runs. Over the last two seasons, though, the fly ball rate has been over 40%, the first two seasons in his career in which he achieved that feat. The swinging strike rate is 12.4% while the chase rate is 30.7%.
14 of the 21 home runs have been served up at home. The K-BB% is 3.5% higher against righties but the FIPs are close at 3.77 against lefties and 3.58 against righties. The K-BB% is 4.7% higher at home, but the home run discrepancy makes the FIP higher.
Against right-handed pitching, the Astros have the 21st-highest strikeout rate, the 26th-best ISO, and rank 21st in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Houston ranks 23rd in FIP, while Toronto ranks 18th.
Astros at Blue Jays pick, best bet
I’m pretty confident that the Blue Jays will put up runs, as Javier has serious control issues right now and the Houston bullpen hasn’t been good. Daulton Varsho has a .431 ISO against right-handed pitching in 170 plate appearances this season! The question is the Astros’ offense against Gausman and the Toronto bullpen. Houston hasn’t been a juggernaut on offense and I think they get limited on Thursday.
