With just a few weeks remaining in the MLB season, there’s a lot that’s yet to be decided in the American League. The Detroit Tigers will win the AL Central, but the AL East and AL West will come down to the wire. The New York Yankees, who trail the Toronto Blue Jays by three games atop the East, will hope to make up some ground by avenging yesterday’s loss to the Tigers. The game will start at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium.
Jack Flaherty will toe the rubber for Detroit, while Carlos Rodón gets the call for New York.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees prediction, preview
Yesterday’s 12-2 Tigers win can be attributed to a classic Yankees foe: the bullpen. The game was tied 2-2 in the seventh inning, when New York pulled Will Warren, and Fernando Cruz and Mark Leiter Jr. combined to give up nine runs on four hits, four walks, and a hit by pitch while getting zero outs. Since the All-Star break, the Yankees’ bullpen has posted a 5.01 ERA, a mark that would be the league’s third-worst across a full season, and trade deadline acquisitions Camilo Doval and Jake Bird have struggled mightily. Detroit, meanwhile, is coming off of back-to-back series losses as all of its pitchers not named Tarik Skubal have gone cold, but the Tigers also haven’t played a meaningful game in months, so it’s hard to glean too much from their recent form.
The Yankees should have a decent chance of bouncing back behind Rodón, who’s given up two or fewer runs in each of his last six starts and, perhaps more crucially, has shown plenty of stamina, completing the sixth inning in 17 of his 29 starts. The 32-year-old has been sharp even in the pitcher-friendly environment of Yankee Stadium, putting up a 2.86 ERA in 13 home starts. Advanced numbers are also kind to him; his 3.27 expected ERA ranks in the 79th percentile league-wide.
Rodón will likely be effective, so New York’s chances rely heavily on how quickly he’ll be able to get through the lineup. It won’t be easy; Detroit has seen the fourth-most pitches per plate appearance and posted the ninth-highest batting average on balls in play. Either way, the Yankees’ best reliever, closer David Bednar, is on two days’ rest, and Luke Weaver (2.81 ERA) has had three days off.
Rodón clearly has the edge in the starting pitching matchup against Flaherty, who leads the American League with 13 losses despite pitching for its second-best team. The 29-year-old has been especially poor as of late, conceding four or more earned runs in four of his last six starts and pitching to a 6.68 ERA across that span. Some of that can be attributed to luck — his FIP in that stretch was a far more respectable 3.53, and his 4.10 expected ERA overall is close to a league-average mark — but a 13th-percentile barrel rate, a 22nd-percentile ground ball rate, and a .768 opposing OPS to lefties is a dangerous combination at a stadium with a short porch in right field. The Tigers’ bullpen has been generally strong, so if Flaherty gets into trouble, A.J. Hinch can pull him.
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees pick, best bet
Best Bet: Detroit Tigers U3.5 Total Runs (-120)
As long as Rodón completes the sixth inning, Detroit should have three or fewer runs through the bottom of the sixth, and New York can turn to Weaver and Bednar to take care of two of the remaining three innings. The risk is that the Yankees lead by more and turn to one of their less trustworthy arms.
Strong Lean: Carlos Rodón to Record a Win (+143)
I back New York to take an early lead against Flaherty, who’s had just a 5.64 ERA in 12 starts on the road. His 3.97 FIP suggests that there isn’t that huge a chasm between him and Rodón, but the sample size is big enough not to be a fluke.
