Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
It’s a full Tuesday slate with all 30 teams in action this evening, yet I’m here to narrow the filed down to these home run bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook: Manny Machado, Eric Wagaman and Michael Busch.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Michael Busch 1+ Home Run (+425)
Generally speaking, I’m not going to go out of my way to bet against Spencer Strider, but the fact of the matter is that the RHP hasn’t looked like himself all season — especially since the beginning of July. Across Strider’s past 10 starts, the 26-year-old has registered a 6.02 ERA and he’s surrendered 2.24 opponent home runs per nine. That equates out to a .571 opponent slugging percentage and a .402 opponent wOBA. Woof. The Cubs have a lineup full of hitters that can take advantage of Strider in his current state, yet my attention is squarely on Michael Busch. The left-handed first baseman is basically a platoon hitter, but he’s quite good at it, slashing .270/.350/.524 with a .254 ISO and a 143 wRC+ within the split. Busch has managed 24 of his 26 long balls of right-handed pitching so far in 2025. He’ll be looking for home run No. 27 on Tuesday.
Manny Machado 1+ Home Run (+300)
At some point, we might start to see diminishing returns from the aging Manny Machado, but this is not that point. Machado enters tonight’s matchup with Zack Littell and the Reds in possession of a 95th percentile hard hit rate (52.6%) and 88th percentile marks in both expected wOBA (.371) and expected slugging rate (.511). In layman’s terms, Machado remains an All-Star caliber hitter. Meanwhile, Littell is far from an All-Star caliber pitcher. No one has conceded more opponent home runs than Littell in 2025, after the right-hander gave up his 31st, 32nd, 33rd and 34th long balls of the campaign in last week’s outing versus the Blue Jays. Littell should fare slightly better at Petco Park than he has at the batter-friendly Great American “Small” Park, yet he’s still surrendered 2.02 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs for the season as a whole. He just can’t keep the ball on the ground.
Eric Wagaman 1+ Home Run (+600)
Let’s get a little wild, shall we? This is one of those “something’s gotta give” matchups. Mitchell Parker is toeing the rubber for the Nationals on Tuesday night and he’s been completely unable to suppress opposing offenses throughout 2025. To wit, Parker has pitched to a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (50.8%) and a second percentile xERA (5.97). Since the beginning of August, the southpaw has surrendered 10 home runs in only 32.0 innings of work. However, on the other side, no MLB team has a lower ISO against LHPs than the Marlins (.121), which does make it slightly difficult to find a home run prop to back on DraftKings Sportsbook. To Wagaman’s credit, he has hit five of his nine long balls this season off lefties, and enters this tilt with a .513 expected slugging percentage within the split — the highest qualified mark on Miami’s roster.
