With no football on the schedule this evening, the betting world will turn its attention towards a full 15-game MLB slate. It’s an exciting time in the baseball calendar, with just under three weeks left in the regular season and playoff races heating up.
Here are my top two bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for today’s action on the diamond.
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves
Cubs ML (-112)
I’m trying to imagine the look on my face in April, if you had told me that I’d be heavily on the Cade Horton side of a pitching matchup between him and Spencer Strider. That’s why we play the games, right?
Honestly, there might not be two pitchers headed in more opposite directions across the past two months. Horton has been the Cubs’ best starter by a wide margin dating back to July 20, as the rookie has maintained an eye-popping 0.77 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over his last nine outings. Is that level of dominance sustainable? Of course not. Horton also possesses a .191 opponent BABIP and a 96.7% strand rate in this span of time, yet who am I to nitpick a man who hasn’t allowed a single earned run in six of his last nine starts? That includes his last appearance on September 3 against these same Braves, when Horton fired five scoreless frames without even surrendering a hit.
Meanwhile, things have gone off the rails for Strider. The right-hander’s fastball velocity has begun to dip again, which is why Atlanta opted to skip Strider’s scheduled start on Sunday and have him pitch tonight on extra rest. He’s also not generating the types of whiffs we’re used to seeing when Strider’s right. To wit, Strider’s swinging strike rate has clocked in below 9.0% in four of his last seven outings, with a career-low 3.4% mark versus the Cubs on September 1. To put that into context, Strider never once produced a single-digit swinging strike rate during his 32 starts in 2023. In that same seven-game span, Strider is sporting an ugly 7.75 ERA. Woof.
Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
Under 8.5 (-116)
For a game in September, we have surprisingly few 2025 data points for both of tonight’s starting pitchers in Toronto. Shane Bieber has only made three starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, while Luis Garcia has only made one. Still, there’s significant statistics from the past that suggest these two hurlers can be excellent when healthy.
Let’s begin with Bieber. A single poor inning in his last start against the Reds has ballooned the veteran’s ERA to 4.15, but a 2.74 FIP and a 10.5 K/BB ratio are far more representative of how well Bieber’s pitched since making his Blue Jays debut in late August. The Astros aren’t a soft matchup by any means — especially with Yordan Alvarez finally back and hitting the ball with authority — yet Houston does rank 26th in wRC+ over the past 30 days (88).
Garcia is, admittedly, a little more difficult to trust tonight. While the RHP did toss six innings without a walk in his first MLB start since 2023, the Angels were able to hit a pair of long balls and eke out three earned runs. Garcia’s average fastball velocity was down a couple ticks from where it sat prior to his injury and, as a result, he surrendered three barrels. That said, Garcia has a career 3.62 ERA and Toronto just put Bo Bichette (knee) on the IL. Bichette leads MLB in hits. It would be an understatement to suggest he’ll be sorely missed.
