The Astros and Blue Jays are two teams in a similar spot. Both clubs find themselves in first place for now, with rivals closing in fast. Houston (78-66) has to contend with the Mariners, while Toronto (82-61) just lost a series to the surging Yankees. Right now, both Seattle and New York are just two games out of the division lead.
Keeping that in mind, this upcoming series is crucial for each of these two contenders. Who will come out on top tonight in this potential playoff preview? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between the Astros and the Blue Jays.
Toronto is favored (-157) over Houston, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Astros vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Let’s start with Houston, who enter Tuesday on a cold streak. Since August 1st, the Astros have gone just 16-19; that’s the ninth-worst record in baseball during that time. In theory, the return of Yordan Alvarez should have helped. After all, the slugger is batting .425 since rejoining the team on August 26th. Regardless, it hasn’t helped H-Town gain separation on the Mariners. Over the past month, just four Astros hitters have an OPS above .750.
On the mound, it’s been a different story. While a potential postseason rotation is unclear, Houston still possesses several quality arms. That includes Luis Garcia, recently activated off the injured list. It’s been a long road back to the majors for the righty. In May of 2023, he suffered season-ending Tommy John surgery. A slew of setbacks have prohibited the Venezuelan from making an appearance prior to last week. In his season debut, Garcia tossed six innings of three-run ball vs. the Angels.
That most recent start, while encouraging, doesn’t guarantee future success. After all, facing the Blue Jays is a far more significant challenge than taking on Los Angeles. Toronto’s offense is an assembly line, averaging a league-leading 9.17 hits per game. Unsurprisingly, that makes this group a nightmare for opposing starters. However, Garcia has done a solid job at limiting hard contact during his five-year MLB career. Securing quick outs would also be a boon for the veteran, who is likely on a pitch limit.
As previously mentioned, this Astros lineup has struggled recently. It may not get any easier for the visitors tonight. Shane Bieber is Tuesday’s projected starter, making his fourth appearance of the season. Since joining the Blue Jays, he’s notched a 4.15 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 21 strikeouts. Last week’s five-run showing vs. the Reds was a setback. Still, this is an easier offense to face and it’s at home. In three career games vs. Houston, Bieber owns a 2.25 ERA.
Astros vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+138)
With respect for Garcia, I have more faith in Bieber, a former Cy Young winner, tonight. It helps that this game will be held at Rogers Centre, where Toronto holds a terrific 45-24 record. Given Houston’s struggles on offense, the Jays could break this game open.
