Two clubs with plenty on the line are set to meet tonight in Southern California. For the Reds, every win is crucial. Cincinnati trails the Mets by four games for possession of the National League’s final wildcard spot. San Diego’s postseason ticket is all but guaranteed at 79-65. Still, the Padres are only one game behind the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s battle between the Reds and Padres.
San Diego is favored (-195) over Cincinnati, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Reds vs. Padres prediction, preview
The biggest story in this matchup is the return of Michael King. It’s been an injury-plagued 2025 campaign for the right-hander. However, when healthy, he’s been electric. Through 57.2 innings of work, the 30-year-old owns a 2.81 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 65 strikeouts. Obviously, that’s a small sample size. Still, those are ace-like numbers from someone that isn’t exactly a household name. For a Padres club that has a need for high-end starters, the veteran’s return couldn’t come at a better time.
Tuesday will mark exactly one month since King last pitched in the majors. A date with the Reds isn’t the easiest; they’re averaging the 13th-most runs per game in baseball (4.51). However, Cincinnati has scored the seventh-fewest total runs in baseball over its last 15 games (83). During King’s only career start against the Reds, back in 2024, he tossed 6.2 innings of three-run ball.
Against an elite arm, runs are no guarantee. That puts even more pressure on tonight’s other starter, Zack Littell. Acquired in July from Tampa Bay, the veteran has been unimpressive for Cincinnati. Through six starts with the Reds, he’s notched a 4.78 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 27 strikeouts. During his most recent start, the righty coughed up five runs in 4.1 innings of work. With that being said, this could be an opportunity to get back on track. Petco Park is the perfect venue for a flyball pitcher such as Littell. In addition, he held the Padres to just two runs in five innings on April 27th.
Reds vs. Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Reds vs. Padres under 4.5 total runs – 1st 5 innings (-135)
King is the headliner tonight, but Littell is more than capable of a quality start. In comparison, neither of these offenses have been the most consistent, especially San Diego. Right now, the safest play available on Tuesday is to back the first five innings under.
