Saturday night in Las Vegas, Nevada, at Allegiant Stadium, Canelo Alvarez puts his Undisputed Super Middleweight Championship on the line against the undefeated former Champion Terence Crawford. The home of the Las Vegas Raiders will host their first boxing event in its stadium’s history. This is Canelo’s third boxing fight in a stadium, as he competed twice at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Saturday’s event is airing live on Netflix at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Here is my best bet for Saturday’s boxing card headlined by Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford.
Terence Crawford Moneyline (+135)
On paper, this fight between Canelo and Crawford is as good as it gets in the sport. Crawford enters this bout without gold around his waist, an unfamiliar feeling for “Bud,” who is one of three two-division Undisputed Champions in the four-belt era. This fight is for all the gold at 168 pounds, as Canelo is a two-time Undisputed Super Middleweight Champion. Crawford was the Undisputed Champion at Super Lightweight (140 pounds) and Welterweight (147 pounds), with his previous bout taking place at Super Welterweight.
Although Crawford is moving up 14 pounds from his previous bout, he has a three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage (74″ vs. 70.5″) while being slightly taller (5’8″ vs. 5.7.5″). On DraftKings Sportsbook, Alvarez is a -165 favorite with Crawford being a +135.
Canelo has a 63-2-2 record with 39 knockouts in his legendary career. In 2022, Canelo lost his second career bout to Dmitry Bivol, but since then, he has won six straight contests. On the other hand, Crawford has a perfect 41-0 record with 31 knockouts. This is Crawford’s first fight in 2025 and has been inconsistent lately, only competing once in the previous five years (2020-2024).
Canelo is a little bit better of a power puncher, but Crawford is the better defensive fighter. Crawford’s opponents only connect on 21.5 percent of their punches via CompuBox. With Crawford’s size advantage, if he dictates the pace of the contest while not allowing Canelo to land big power punches, it could bode well for the former champion. Yes, Crawford hasn’t been very active. However, he is still only one fight removed from dominating Errol Spence Jr. Canelo hasn’t displayed his traditional aggressiveness recently, which is concerning against an incredible all-around boxer like Crawford.
Christian Mbilli Moneyline (-185)
Another big fight on this card is also taking place in the Super Middleweight division between Christian Mbilli vs. Lester Martinez. Mbilli has flown under the radar but is on the verge of a title shot. He is 29-0 with 24 knockouts and is ranked as the No. 3 ranked Super Middleweight behind Canelo and Hamzah Sheeraz on BoxRec.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Mbilli is a -185 favorite while Martinez is a +145 underdog. Mbilli has defeated five of his last six opponents by knockout. Mbilli’s opponent, Martinez, is also undefeated, with a record of 19-0 with 16 knockouts in his career. Martinez is coming off a fourth-round knockout against Joeshon James in March. Mbilli beat Maciej Sulecki in the first round by TKO in June.
In this contest, Mbilli has a significant edge in experience, as he has 10 more fights on his resume. That should be a factor in this fight as Martinez is taking a substantial step up in competition. With Canelo fighting in the Main Event, it should give Mbilli extra motivation to put on a spectacular performance to try and get a title opportunity in the future.
Callum Walsh by KO/TKO/DQ (+175)
Walsh is 14-0 with 11 knockouts while still being 24 years old. This is Walsh’s moment to put on a spectacular performance in front of a massive audience on Netflix. But he has Fernando Vargas Jr. in his way, who is the son of Fernando Vargas, the former two-time Light Middleweight Champion.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Walsh is a -330 favorite with Vargas being a +245 underdog. But with 26 knockouts between the two fighters, this contest is unlikely to go the scheduled 10 rounds. Since Walsh is taller (5’9″ vs. 5’8″) with a larger standing reach (71.5″ vs. 70″), he should be able to control the pace of the contest. Wash is extremely powerful, and when he begins to land on his opponents, they don’t last long.
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