Arguably the biggest beneficiary of the 2026 FIFA World Cup’s expansion is South America: while COMNEBOL previously received four and a half World Cup spots, with the top four teams from qualifying advancing directly to the group stage and the fifth-placed team advancing to the inter-confederation playoffs, the continent now gets six and a half spots.
With one match day remaining in qualification, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Ecuador, Colombia, and Paraguay have already booked their tickets. Venezuela (18 points) is in position to advance to the inter-confederation playoffs, where it would likely be among the favorites, while Bolivia (17) is hot on La Vinotinto’s heels. But both teams have difficult games in their final fixtures: Bolivia will host Brazil, while Venezuela will host Colombia. Both matches will start at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Seleçao are +135 favorites over Bolivia at DraftKings Sportsbook. La Verde is +230 on the Moneyline, with +220 odds that the teams will draw.
Bolivia vs. Brazil prediction, pick
Seleção are going through a comparatively tough stretch by their lofty standards despite sitting second in the standings. Barcelona winger Raphinha has been Brazil’s best player throughout World Cup qualifying, registering seven goal contributions in 12 matches, but the Real Madrid duo of Rodrygo and Vinicius Júnior has been comparatively disappointing, notching only three goal contributions each. It was 18-year-old Chelsea wunderkind Estêvão Willian who led the charge in Thursday’s 3-0 win over already-eliminated Chile, netting the opener before being substituted off. Other high-profile players were not named to the squad for the September qualifiers, including Rodrygo and Los Blancos teammate Endrick, as well as Fenerbahçe goalkeeper Ederson and Santos midfielder Neymar.
On paper, this shouldn’t be a close match; the last time these two teams met, Seleção managed a 5-1 win on September 8, 2023 in Belém. But Bolivia has a major advantage that has kept its qualification hopes alive, the fact that its home stadium, Estadio Municipal de El Alto, sits high in the Andes at 13,615 feet (4,150 meters). Previously, La Verde played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz, some 2,000 feet lower, but since moving their home stadium prior to their match against Venezuela last September, they’ve had three wins, two draws, and no losses at home. Paraguay, starting a relatively full-strength side, needed a Julio Encisco equalizer in the 91st minute just to escape with a point. Uruguay captain José María Jiménez required supplemental oxygen just to play all 90 minutes of a 0-0 draw.
It’s unlikely that new Brazil manager Carlo Ancelotti will send a strong side to the Andes with nothing to play for; Liverpool surely won’t want star goalkeeper Alisson to risk injury or illness with the Premier League season set to resume this weekend, especially as he approaches his 33rd birthday. Ancelotti might also rotate out a player like Richarlison, who played only 64 minutes the last time Seleção played against Ecuador in Quito, which sits 9,350 feet (2,850 meters) above sea level. PSG’s Marquinhos has also played all but 45 minutes for Brazil in this qualifier campaign and might be owed some rest. Seleção are deep in the attack — Estêvão should partner nicely with Cruziero star Kaio Jorge, Série A’s top scorer, and Lucas Paquetá has already scored two goals in three matches for West Ham — but La Verde has been defensively stout in El Alto.
The main question is whether Bolivia can put one past whoever guards Brazil’s net, whether that’s Alisson, Bento, or Hugo Souza. La Verde does have the qualifying tournament’s third-leading scorer, 21-year-old Miguel Terceros, who has netted in four of the five home matches he’s played. Still, three of his six goals have come against already-eliminated Chile and Peru, and he was mostly invisible in his matches against Colombia and Argentina. Bolivia will need a win to keep its qualification hopes alive, given the 12-goal differential between its scoring margin and Venezuela’s. I think it’ll finish in a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw.
