After two weeks of the college football season, things are starting to take shape. Some teams have already taken tough losses, while others are showing their quality. However, in the Heisman Trophy race, things are wide open heading into Week 3. This is a look at the updated Heisman odds and best players to target in the market before Week 3.
Post-Week 2 Heisman Odds Update
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer is the new Heisman favorite after his great performance in Oklahoma’s win over Michigan. Going into this season, the Heisman race seemed wide open. Experienced quarterbacks like Garrett Nussmeier and Cade Klubnik were among the favorites, alongside promising young stars like Arch Manning and LaNorris Sellers. The Heisman has largely become a quarterback award, although Travis Hunter broke the mold last season. That being said, Hunter was a special case, doing something we had never seen in modern college football before. The only non-quarterback considered a serious contender this season is Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. He is inside the top six on the odds boards, which, along with Mateer, also includes Nussmeier, Manning, Carson Beck and Dante Moore.
There are important factors to consider when making a Heisman bet. There are unofficial requirements that have become the standard among Heisman winners over the past decade. In the College Football Playoff era, eight Heisman winners have been quarterbacks, one was a wide receiver, one was a running back, and then the special case of Travis Hunter rounds out the list. So, while it’s not a guarantee to be a quarterback, it’s overwhelmingly likely. The other key factor is that the player needs to be on a winning team. Of the 11 winners in this era, all 11 of them were on a team that won at least nine regular-season games. Eight of them made their conference title game, seven of them won their conference title game, and seven of them made the College Football Playoff. The only three Heisman winners to not even make their conference title game were generational talents, Travis Hunter, Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson.
So, the best bet to make would be on a quarterback of a team that has a chance to at least make their conference title game, and in this era, make the 12-team playoff. The player also needs to have some sort of “Heisman moment.” Which really means they need to just make big plays in an important game that the whole country is watching. If they don’t play any tough opponents, they could rack up stats, but not make a lasting impression on voters. This early in the season, the race seems wide open. Mateer looks great, but there is a chance Oklahoma is not a serious SEC contender, despite their strong start. Therefore, I am looking further down the odds board for players with more value in this market.
Jayden Maiava (+3000)
Jayden Maiava has had a great start to his tenure as USC’s starting quarterback. Maiava transferred from UNLV to USC last season, but backed up Miller Moss. Although Maiava took over the starting job for the final four games of last season and won the job so convincingly that Miller Moss transferred during the offseason. Maiava ranks third in the nation in passing yards per game after two weeks. While the competition hasn’t been too tough, Maiava has shown that he can put up massive numbers in these “stat pad” games, which is important for the counting stats at the end of the year.
Maiava will also have plenty of chances to make Heisman moments. USC plays Illinois, Michigan, Notre Dame and Oregon this season, four teams currently in the AP Top 25. Those will all be nationally televised games, where Maiava can show off his stuff in front of the nation. If USC can win two of those four games and take care of the rest of their schedule, they should be a College Football Playoff team with ten wins. Also, USC has a rich tradition of Heisman winners like Caleb Williams, Reggie Bush, Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart. Heisman voters would love to vote for the quarterback who took USC to their first-ever College Football Playoff.
Sawyer Robertson (+9000)
Sawyer Robertson has had statistically the best start to the season of any quarterback in college football, yet he is still 90/1 to win the Heisman. Robertson has 859 passing yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions through two games. He has played high-level competition, Auburn and SMU, in those two games as well. Robertson is by far the national leader in passing yards per game and should continue to put up big numbers all season. The biggest thing holding Robertson back is whether Baylor can achieve team success. They don’t have a great defense, which cost them a win against Auburn. Despite not getting stops, they were able to beat SMU in a shootout to keep their season alive.
Sawyer Robertson should put up big numbers in the Big 12 all season. In mid-November, Baylor takes on Utah, the favorites to win the Big 12. If Baylor can be in contention to win the league and Robertson wins that game for the Bears, it could be his Heisman moment on a national scale. The Big 12 is wide open, and Baylor has a solid chance of winning the conference. If Robertson leads the nation in passing yards and takes Baylor to the playoff by winning the Big 12, he should be a Heisman finalist by the end of the season. Baylor is currently 9/1 to win the Big 12, making this price of Robertson to win the Heisman at 90/1 an absolute steal. If Baylor wins the conference, Robertson will almost certainly be a top Heisman contender.
