Week 1 of the NFL Regular Season wraps up with an NFC North contest Monday night. The Chicago Bears will start a new era under new head coach Ben Johnson by hosting the Minnesota Vikings, who are starting a new era of their own with J.J. McCarthy under center. The matchup is the focus of some big DFS showdown contests, including the NFL Showdown $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (MIN @ CHI). As you build your lineups for Monday Night Football, my favorite Captain’s Pick plays are Caleb Williams ($13,800 as Captain’s Pick) and T.J. Hockenson ($9,900 as Captain’s Pick).
Here’s a deeper look at why I like these Captain’s Picks and how I’m going about building a lineup from top to bottom:
Caleb Williams as a Captain’s Pick
The Bears drafted Williams No. 1 overall before last season, and the rookie had a decent but not spectacular season. He averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game while throwing for 3,541 yards and 20 touchdowns to go with six interceptions.
This offseason, the Bears brought in Ben Johnson from the Lions, and he’s brought in a new system that seems to be a good fit for Williams, based on how he looked in preseason. The new system is focused on improving Williams’ footwork and quick decisions in the pocket.
Williams should be able to take a step forward this year with a vastly improved offensive line and a strong group of pass-catchers led by DJ Moore ($9,600), Rome Odunze ($8,000) and Luther Burden III ($4,600) at receiver, along with a pair of strong tight ends in Colston Loveland ($5,800) and Cole Kmet ($4,000).
Williams looked good against the Vikings in their first meeting last season, totaling 29.9 fantasy points in Week 12, but he only managed 10.94 fantasy points in the rematch in Week 15.
Like many rookies, Williams was more effective at home (18 fantasy points per game) than on the road (14.5 fantasy points per game). He was especially more effective by adding rushing yards at Soldier Field.
While it should be a close game, I trust Williams more than the unproven McCarthy and think he’ll spread the ball around enough in the new system to be the top Captain’s Pick play.
T.J. Hockenson as Captain’s Pick in a balanced build
Hockenson could be a great security blanket for McCarthy as a key pass-catcher this season. The tight end missed the first eight weeks last year, but he had 41 catches for 455 yards in his 10 regular-season games and added five catches for 64 yards and a touchdown in the Vikings’ playoff loss.
He played limited time in the preseason and didn’t have any targets, but he’s healthy and ready to roll as the season begins.
McCarthy will have limited pass-catchers to target in Week 1 with Jalen Nailor (hand) out and Jordan Addison serving the first game of his suspension. While Jordan Jefferson ($10,800) is obviously going to get plenty of targets and brings a very high ceiling, Hockenson could be as high as McCarthy’s second option.
He’s high-risk because McCarthy is such an unknown factor, but he has a very high ceiling at a very nice price, leaving you lots of salary to include stars across the board if you play Hockenson as your Captain’s Pick.
Lineup Advice
If you’re building around Williams, you can pick a receiver or two to stack with him. I really like Burden at his salary, with Moore as a good option as well. Loveland is a nice value play under $6,000 as well. If you are backing Williams instead of McCarthy, you could include either Aaron Jones Sr. ($7,400) and Jordan Mason ($7,000) from the Vikings if you think they’ll rely on the running game.
If you go with Hockenson, you can stack him with McCarthy and even Jefferson, if you think the Vikings’ passing game will take off against the Bears. Building around Hockenson allows you to include both quarterbacks if you want or other stars in your flex spots.
Value plays
Against the young quarterbacks, both defenses could be good value plays. The Vikings D/ST ($5,400) averaged over nine fantasy points per game, and Vikings kicker Will Reichard ($5,000) averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game last year as well. The Bears options weren’t as productive last year, but the Bears D/ST ($3,400) will have the advantage of facing McCarthy in his debut.
Luther Burden III ($4,600) is a good play in his debut under $5,000, and Adam Thielen ($4,400) will get work on the other side, stepping into a large role with the other Vikings’ who are missing.
Another key spot to watch for value is the Bears’ backup running back spot. Roschson Johnson ($3,000; foot, questionable) seems to be trending in the right direction to be available. Rookie Kyle Monangai ($2,800) could fill in if Johnson is limited, and he looked good in his action this preseason and training camp as well.
If you want a deeper cut, Olamide Zaccheaus ($2,000) for the Bears and Josh Oliver ($1,600) for the Vikings could be involved as depth options as well.
