In the evening window of Monday’s MLB slate, two postseason contenders duke it out as the Philadelphia Phillies (83-60) host the New York Mets (76-67). This looks like a premier matchup and potential playoff preview with plenty of stars on display as Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto and many more of baseball’s best take the field at 6:45 p.m. EST.
Here’s a Phillies vs. Mets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for today’s action.
Phillies vs. Mets prediction, preview
The Phillies enter Monday’s contest comfortably atop the NL East with a seven-game lead over these Mets. Philly finds themselves catching fire with a 7-3 record in their last 10 contests, including a series win over the MLB-best Brewers last week. The loss of Trea Turner due to a hamstring issue for which he’ll undergo an MRI on Monday does mark a significant loss for the lineup, but overall this offense remains one of the most elite units in the sport. The Phillies rank top-10 in runs, average, OPS and home runs this season, and they’re still hot at the plate as things currently stand. Over the last two weeks, the team falls eighth in average and OPS at .266 and .792, respectively, though their scoring average is down slightly at an even five runs per contest in that sample.
As for the Mets, they were surging recently but have cooled off some at 4-6 across their last 10 contests. They rank just inside the top 10 in runs and batting average this year, but New York actually boasts the fourth-best OPS and sixth-most homers overall. Over the last two weeks, the Mets also sit first in scoring with seven runs per game as well as the second-best average and OPS with marks of .296 and .888. Their 20 home runs in that sample also rank fourth, and they’ve drawn the second-most walks of any team. However, they dropped their last two games to the Cincinnati Reds and need to rebound in a big way to hold on to the third and final NL Wild Card spot.
On the full season, the Phillies boast a slightly better pitching staff with a 3.82 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, both better marks than the Mets’ 3.93 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Losing Zack Wheeler was a terrible stroke of luck for Philadelphia though, and neither one of these units are throwing particularly well with a 4.54 ERA for Philly and a 4.97 ERA for New York over the last 15 days.
Phillies vs. Mets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mets as -126 road favorites on the Moneyline tonight while the Phillies come in as slight +104 underdogs at home. The run total sits at nine for the matchup with the under favored at -121 odds.
The matchup on the mound pits an up-and-coming rookie against a struggling veteran. For the Mets, 24-year-old Nolan McLean (1.37 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 28 SO in 26.1 IP) makes the fifth start of his MLB career and second against the Phillies. Philadelphia starts Aaron Nola (6.78 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 72 SO in 69.0 IP), who’s had his fair share of trouble since returning from injury back in mid-August.
In his lone start against Philly, McLean tossed a gem with eight shutout innings and six strikeouts while allowing just four hits against a lethal lineup. He may not do the same today, but he’s allowed just four earned runs across his four starts with four hits or fewer allowed in each as well, so he looks like a young stud in the making. Nola, meanwhile, allowed four earned runs on seven hits in 6.1 innings against the Mets back in April, and he’s also allowed at least four earned runs in three of four starts since coming back last month. These arms are in very different form, and while the Philadelphia offense remains quite formidable, they may struggle to compete with New York’s bats given how positive their matchup seems against Nola.
All things considered, I’m targeting the Mets on the Moneyline this evening.
Best bet: NY Mets ML (-126)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
