This is the second contest of a four-game series in Philadelphia between the Phillies and visiting New York Mets.
Sean Manaea is scheduled to pitch for New York, while Ranger Suarez is slated to start for Los Angeles.
Mets at Phillies prediction, preview
Sean Manaea is having a strange 45-inning season. The strikeout rate is 29.8%, and the walk rate is 4.5%. The swinging strike rate is 12.3%, and the chase rate is 28.9%—all strong numbers. However, the ERA sits at 5.60, and he’s allowed eight home runs. The FIP is much lower at 3.83, thanks to a .336 BABIP and a 66.9% strand rate. Shrug.
All eight home runs have come off the bats of righties, but the sample size is just 10 innings. The K-BB% is over 23% against both righties and lefties, but the 2.06 HR/9 against righties pushes the FIP up to 4.43. He’s been better on the road, where the K-BB% is 4.1% higher and the FIP is 1.54 lower.
In nine starts, Manaea has allowed more than three earned runs five times. He has yet to complete six innings in any outing. He faced the Phillies two starts ago at home, going 4.2 innings without issuing a walk and striking out eight, while allowing two earned runs on six hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Phillies rank 13th in strikeout rate, 10th in ISO, and ninth in MLB in wOBA.
Ranger Suárez has been very good this season. Through 137 innings, he owns a 2.89 ERA and a 3.08 FIP. The strikeout rate is 22.8%, and the walk rate is 5.7%. He’s allowed just 10 home runs. His average exit velocity is only 85.7 mph (best in MLB), his barrel rate is 5.6% (fifth-best), and his hard-hit rate is 30.1% (also best).
Nine of the 10 home runs have come off the bats of righties. His K-BB% is 24.5% against lefties and 15.4% against righties. The FIP is 2.35 against lefties and 3.23 against righties. Suárez has been slightly better at home, but still very effective on the road.
In 22 starts, Suárez has allowed more than three earned runs just four times. He’s gone at least six innings in 16 of those starts. This will be his first time facing the Mets this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Mets have the 23rd-highest strikeout rate, the 14th-best ISO, and rank 13th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, New York ranks 14th in FIP, while Philadelphia ranks eighth.
Mets at Phillies pick, best bet
Suarez is so good and I have the utmost confidence in him. Manaea? Not so much, although he’s been productive yet unlucky.
