The quest for the third and final American League Wild Card spot is shaping up well with just three weeks remaining in the season. Though the Seattle Mariners currently hold that spot, the Texas Rangers trail them by just one and a half games, and five teams are separated by four games. Texas faces a tough test this week as it seeks to make up ground, hosting the league-leading Milwaukee Brewers for a three-game set.
The series will begin with an 8:05 p.m. ET clash tonight at Globe Life Field. Jacob Latz will toe the rubber for the Rangers, while Jose Quintana starts for the Brewers.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers at Texas Rangers prediction, preview
The game doesn’t matter much for Milwaukee, which has a 7.5-game lead over the Chicago Cubs atop the NL Central and a 5.5-game edge over the Philadelphia Phillies for the best record in baseball. The Brewers’ only priority is staying healthy, as Christian Yelich has been out of the lineup for the last week with a back injury and closer Trevor Megill is currently on the injured list with an elbow issue. Despite a slew of injuries, Texas has been hot as of late, winning 11 of its last 15 games, and it could still see Corey Seager return from his appendix issue before the playoffs. In the last 15 days, the Rangers have had the league’s 10th-highest OPS and ninth-lowest ERA, while Milwaukee has ranked seventh and 10th, respectively.
After a fast start to the season, Quintana has slowed down since the All-Star break. The Colombian has pitched to a 4.35 ERA with a 5.50 FIP in 49.2 innings across the second half so far, and though the Brewers have won six of the nine games he’s started, his form is still a concern headed into the postseason. Advanced stats aren’t very kind to the southpaw; his 5.21 expected ERA is in just the 12th percentile league-wide. His whiff and strikeout rates also sit in the bottom decile, and Texas whiffs at a below-average rate as is. The saving grace is that he has extreme home-road splits, pitching to a 4.97 ERA in his 11 starts at home and a 2.57 mark in 11 starts on the road.
Latz has been impressive this season, both as a starter and as a reliever. He has made 28 appearances this season, including five starts, and in his starts, he’s posted a 3.38 ERA. Advanced numbers suggest that he has been a little bit lucky — his 4.18 expected ERA is worse than the league median — and he might struggle a little bit with both Seager and Marcus Semien, who are both elite defenders at their respective positions, sidelined. Still, he’s been excellent at generating whiffs and avoiding barrels, which is a good combination against a Milwaukee team that has whiffed at the league’s third-lowest rate and barreled the fewest times. Latz has been elite at at Globe Life Field, posting a 2.76 ERA in 11 home appearances (two starts).
Milwaukee Brewers at Texas Rangers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Texas Rangers Moneyline (-101)
The Rangers will fight tooth and nail for every win at this point, while Milwaukee has been in cruise mode for several weeks now. The Brewers can’t afford to completely drop off before the postseason, but dropping one or two games on the road against a good Texas team would hardly be cause for panic.
Strong Lean: Under 8.5 (-106)
Quintana’s elite road sample size is nearly as large as Latz’s for the full season, so that trend should be fairly sustainable. Plus, even though Milwaukee’s bullpen has struggled to start September, it has been an elite unit overall across the last three months. The Rangers’ bullpen has done just enough to contain the Brewers offense once Latz leaves the game.
