This is the opener of a three-game series in New York between the Yankees and visiting Detroit Tigers.
Casey Mize is scheduled to pitch for Detroit while Will Warren is slated to start for New York.
Tigers at Yankees prediction, preview
Casey Mize has a 3.87 ERA through 125.2 innings, which is supported by a 3.98 FIP. The strikeout rate is 20.7%, and the walk rate is 6%. His swinging strike rate is 10.2%, with a 28.7% chase rate. The hard-hit rate is 42.6%, and Mize has allowed 17 home runs.
Ten of the 17 home runs have come off the bats of righties. His K-BB% is 6.3% higher against lefties, while the FIP is 1.43 lower. Mize has been better on the road, with a higher K-BB%, and lower HR/9 and FIP.
In 24 starts, Mize has allowed more than three earned runs six times and has gone at least six innings nine times. He faced the Yankees way back in April at home, during his second start of the season, going six innings, walking three, and striking out six while allowing one earned run on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees rank eighth in strikeout rate and first in ISO. Their wOBA ranks first in MLB.
Will Warren has a solid 24.7% strikeout rate through 141 innings, despite averaging only 93.2 mph on the fastball. That fastball, however, has a +10.8 run value, and he throws it 41.3% of the time. The sinker, used 21.7% of the time, has a +6.7 run value. His swinging strike rate is only 9.2%, while the chase rate is 23.8%. Warren has a walk rate of 9.7%, and he gets hit hard: the average exit velocity is 91.3 mph, the barrel rate is 10.4%, and the hard-hit rate is 46.3%.
Eleven of the 17 home runs have come off the bats of lefties. His K-BB% is just 7.2% against lefties, with a 4.99 FIP. Against righties, it jumps to 24.9% with a 2.71 FIP. Warren has essentially been site-neutral.
In 29 starts, Warren has allowed more than three earned runs seven times. He’s gone at least six innings just five times. This will be his first time facing Detroit this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Tigers have the third-highest strikeout rate, the 12th-best ISO, and rank 18th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Detroit ranks 26th in FIP, while New York ranks 11th.
Tigers at Yankees pick, best bet
I like Aaron Judge to do damage in this one. Detroit has some lefties that could give Will Warren trouble, and while I think he gives up some runs, the Yankees’ bullpen should keep things in check. Meanwhile, the offense is prolific and capable of breaking the game open.
