As the stretch run of this MLB season wears on, the playoff picture gets closer to being solidified. If the season ended today, the San Diego Padres would be a wild-card team in the National League, while the Cincinnati Reds would be on the outside looking in. This is a key series for the Reds to fight their way back into the playoff picture, facing down one of the teams in their way.
The Padres enter as -144 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 7.5 runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and best bet for this Reds vs. Padres matchup.
Reds at Padres prediction, preview
The surprise of the season in Cincinnati has been the development of their pitching staff. Tonight’s starter Nick Lodolo has been a big part of that story.
Lodolo, a former No. 7 pick out of TCU, struggled to capitalize on his hype over his first three years. Pitching to a 4.52 ERA over 47 starts did not create much excitement. But this year, he’s flipped the script. The command has been outstanding and the lefty boasts one of the lowest walk rates in the league; an impressive feat considering his most used pitch is the curveball. With a changeup that creates a lot of chases, he’s effective at keeping hitters off-balance.
Yu Darvish is in a very different stage of his career. The 39-year-old former ace has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness, which has turned his contract with the Padres into an albatross. Darvish has pitched through the fifth inning only four times in 11 starts this year with a 5.75 ERA. Despite mixing in a ton of different pitches, he’s not generating a high number of strikeouts or ground balls like he used to. Darvish does have the advantage of handing things off to a stellar bullpen, but the damage he allows before he can be relieved is the trouble.
That’s the sticking point for me. San Diego’s lockdown pen gives them a chance to get back into games, but the Padres needing a late-inning comeback makes too much sense with Darvish struggling while Lodolo cooks.
