The Dream are hosting the Sun on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Atlanta is favored by 15.5 points and this game carries a total of 159.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup between the Dream and the Sun and give a pick for the game.
Dream vs. Sun preview, prediction
Monday is the first of a two-game mini-series between the Dream and Sun to close out the regular season for these teams. At 28-14, Atlanta is currently the No. 3 seed, but the club is still alive for the No. 2 seed, so these final two games vs. Connecticut are important for this Dream squad that has championship aspirations in these coming playoffs.
Atlanta ranks second in net rating this season and Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray have been outstanding since the All-Star break, leading the Dream with 19.2 and 18.9 PPG, respectively. Atlanta has won four in a row, including a 17-point win over the Sun last Monday, improving the Dream to 2-1 vs. Connecticut this season with a 20.5-point margin of victory.
The Sun sit in 11th place at 11-31 this season, but the club has improved after a putrid first half of the season, with an 8-12 record since the All-Star break. Connecticut just shocked the 27-15 Mercury this past Saturday, defeating the club 87-84. This is arguably the Sun’s best win of the season and Tina Charles, Marina Mabrey and Leila Lacan were great in the victory, scoring 23, 22 and 14 points, respectively.
Unfortunately, Lacan (personal) now will be out for Monday’s matchup vs. the Dream, which is a big loss for the Sun. The rookie is an impactful player on both sides of the ball that ranks second in plus/minus for Connecticut and with Lacan inactive this season, the Sun are an ugly 2-15.
Dream vs. Sun pick, best bet
The Dream are motivated to move up to the No. 2 seed, while the Sun have nothing at stake with only two games left in the regular season. While Connecticut’s win over the Mercury on Saturday was inspiring, the Sun should come back down to earth Monday with Lacan unavailable and lose to the Dream on their home floor, likely by a comfortable margin.
Atlanta is 15-6 at home this season, while Connecticut is 4-17 on the road. Backing the Dream at -15.5 is viable, but instead of attacking this massive spread, I prefer backing this game to go under its 159.5-point total. Both the Dream and Sun are bottom-five teams in pace this season and the first three matchups of the season between these two clubs averaged just 154.3 PPG.
