While NFL Week 1 will get plenty of deserved attention on Sunday, there are also some fun ways to get in on the action if you prefer your big hits on Sunday afternoon of the baseball variety. While most of the MLB action is early in the afternoon, there are three games that get a little bit later start at 3:00 p.m. ET or later. Let’s look at those three games for some home run props this Sunday. After breaking down the matchups, game environments, odds, and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props are from Gavin Sheets, Jo Adell, and Trevor Story.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators that can point us in the right direction, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for late on Sunday:
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Gavin Sheets to record 1+ home runs (+450)
The Padres are at Coors Field, where they finally broke out of their team-wide slump with 10 runs on Saturday night. Four homers were hit in the 10-8 victory, which felt much more like standard Coors Field action than Friday’s 3-0 contest.
On Sunday afternoon, the Padres have another good matchup against Tanner Gordon. Gordon is 5-5 on the year with a 6.07 ERA and 4.15 FIP. He has served up seven homers in his 56 1/3 innings, and five of those dingers have been hit by lefties.
Sheets has been one of the Padres’ best lefty power hitters of the season. He has three homers in his last 20 games to get to 18 for the season. He’s hit .356 over those 20 games with a .445 wOBA. He has been getting inconsistent playing time since the Padres added new bats at the trade deadline, but he is in the lineup hitting sixth as the designated hitter on Sunday.
Sheets definitely has the power to go yard, and he’s on the good side of the splits against Gordon. He smashed this home run on the road against the Mariners for his most recent long ball.
Getting Sheets at +450 at Coors Field in a lefty-friendly matchup seems like a great value to start this afternoon’s home run props.
Jo Adell to record 1+ home runs (+255)
Adell has been on a homer binge lately and looks to continue his breakout season at home against Luis Severino on Sunday afternoon.
On Saturday, Adell went yard for his 34th time this season on Saturday night, while going 3-for-5 in the Angels 17-4 loss to the Athletics.
The long-time top prospect has finally had his breakout season and is hitting .243 with 34 homers and 92 RBI, along with a career-best .344 wOBA. Adell has nine homers in his last 19 games with 20 RBI and a .487 wOBA. He has an impressive 22% barrel rate and 48% hard-hit rate over those 19 games. His average exit velocity over those nine games is 92.6 miles per hour, raising his average for the season to 91.5 miles per hour.
On Sunday, Adell takes on Severino, who is 6-11 in his 25 starts this season and has allowed 13 homers on the year. Adell has hit 27 of his 34 homers against righties like Severino, and he has a .258 batting average and .354 wOBA.
My pick of Adell’s home run props is much more about his form than his matchup, but getting him at +255 given his recent form is a strong play in Anaheim this afternoon.
Trevor Story to record 1+ home runs (+550)
The Red Sox have dropped three straight and need to avoid a sweep in Arizona by beating the Dbacks at Chase Field on Saturday afternoon. Arizona gives the ball to Ryne Nelson, who has been solid this season, but has given up six homers in his last seven starts.
Nelson has a 3.57 ERA and 3.72 FIP overall this year, but he has been living dangerously with a 50% hard-hit rate over his last seven outings. Righties have hit 10 of the 15 homers against Nelson this year and have a .304 wOBA.
On the right side for the Red Sox, my top home run props are from Trevor Story, who leads the team with 23 homers on the season. Five of those homers have come in his last 20 games, including this unique homer on Monday against the Guardians:
Story has had a huge comeback year after injuries shortened his 2024. He has 14 of his 23 homers on the road this season and 17 of his 23 homers against righties like Nelson.
Story has 13 homers in his 48 career games at Chase Field, and he has repeatedly come up huge in clutch spots for Boston this season. I like the veteran’s chances of continuing his comeback story by going yard against Arizona again on Sunday afternoon.
