After the appetizer of a full slate of 1:00 p.m. ET games on Sunday afternoon, we’ll all settle in for the main course: Lions vs. Packers. Could this be a battle for NFC North supremacy? Could this even be an NFC Championship preview? Time will tell.
In the immediate, though, most people just want to know which player is going to find the end zone first.
I’m hear you and I want to help you. Let’s break down the odds below.
Lions vs. Packers First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Josh Jacobs First Touchdown Scorer (+400)
I apologize for getting a little too basic off the top, but Josh Jacobs truly had a monopoly within the Packers’ ranks on goal line touches last season. No player in the NFL handled more carries inside the opponent’s five-yard line than Jacobs (19), while he was one of only eight running backs to see at least 70% of his team’s total rushing attempts from that same distance. In layman’s terms, if Green Bay is handing the ball off to someone near the end zone, there’s a really good chance it’s Jacobs. This wasn’t empty volume, either. It translated into real results. Jacobs’ 14 rushing touchdowns inside the red zone led the league. He also added a receiving score near the goal line. What a guy.
Amon-Ra St. Brown First Touchdown Scorer (+900)
When we talk about red zone volume and the 2024 Lions, we first have to give some context. While Amon-Ra St. Brown did lead the NFL in receptions inside the opponent’s 20-yard line (23), a little of that has to do with the fact that Detroit was just always near their opponent’s end zone. The Lions led the league in touchdowns per game (4.1) and red zone trips per game (4.3). They were quite good, if you don’t remember. Still, let’s not take anything away from St. Brown, who is, without question, one of the top goal line targets in football. St. Brown finished the season in possession of a 34.8% target share in the red zone — the third-highest mark in the NFL, trailing only Drake London, oddly, Wan’Dale Robinson. He’s usually Jared Goff’s first read in high leverage and it’s for good reason.
