Last season, Kevin O’Connell was a wizard, concocting the Sam Darnold elixir that resulted in 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns with a 66.2% completion percentage. Darnold is now in Seattle while the 10th overall selection in the 2023 draft, J. J. McCarthy, is the man. Can he be THE man? Time will only tell but there are many uncertainties.
Minnesota was 15th in pass rate last season, but will that be maintained or will a more run-centric approach be the way? Running back Jordan Mason was signed for two years and $10.5 million while the Vikings boast the seventh-best offensive line according to PFF. The Vikings defense is one of the best units in the NFL, so it’s likely that the pass rate will tick down.
Chicago has the same quarterback but, boy oh boy, there were changes galore in the offseason. Out went head coach Matt Eberflus, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and defensive coordinator Eric Washington. Ben Johnson is now the head man, Declan Doyle is the offensive coordinator and Dennis Allen will orchestrate the defense.
The offensive line was upgraded while the first two picks in the draft were spent on tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III.
While O’Connell has been a wizard in Minnesota, Johnson has been considered an offensive maestro, guiding the juggernaut that is the Detroit Lions. But as with Minnesota, there are plenty of uncertainties in Chicago as well.
Is Johnson truly a maestro? Will Caleb Williams develop into the projected franchise savior? Will all the change produce elixirs or junk?
DraftKings Sportsbook has MIN -1.5 over CHI with the total at 43.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (MIN @ CHI)
Captain’s Picks
Aaron Jones Sr. ($11,100 CP): In every Showdown slate, a story has to be told. The main one I’m telling for Monday night is that the Vikings defense dominates with both Minnesota running backs feasting. As mentioned in the opener, I think the pass rate will decrease this season with McCarthy under center. And if the defense is able to control the game, then both Jones and Mason will eat. I can easily slot Jordan Mason here, as his price is close and Mason could get the goal line looks, but I still think Jones will play slightly more snaps, get more targets and get some red zone looks as well.
UTIL Plays
Vikings DST ($5,400): The unit posted double-digit FPTS eight times last season. Minnesota was fifth in sacks, sixth in pressures and eighth in quarterback knockdowns. Brian Flores is a master and blitzed at the highest rate in the league while the 33 turnovers were tied for the most. In the offseason, the defense was upgraded with tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave.
D. J. Moore ($9,600): Last season, Moore led the Bears with 140 targets and a 26.6% target share. Rome Odunze is expected to take the next step while second-round pick Luther Burden III will likely be a factor at some point. But Keenan Allen and his 121 targets is back in Los Angeles. Moore should see a ton of targets in this one and could also get a few rushes.
Justin Jefferson ($10,800): There are some concerns with Jefferson. He was dealing with a hamstring issue and didn’t practice much over the summer. The pass rate could decrease with McCarthy under center. The game script could allow the Vikings to ground and pound. That said, Jefferson should still command a high target share and is always in play to put up the most points on the slate.
Fades
Caleb Williams ($9,200): All the boxes seem to be checked for Williams this season, but I need to see it first before buying in. I have the utmost respect for Brian Flores as a defensive coordinator and, with an entire offseason to gameplan for this one, I think there’s a chance Williams starts seeing ghosts.
THE OUTCOME
My story, which admittedly could be a terrible one, is that the Vikings defense overwhelms the Bears offense, allowing Minnesota to ground and pound. The End.
Final Score: Vikings 24, Bears 9
