Week 2’s college football slate brings a battle between a couple of Texas’ powerhouse programs as the No. 17 SMU Mustangs (1-0) host the Baylor Bears (0-1) for an early-window showdown. SMU just tuned up against an FCS program while Baylor fell to Auburn, so this matchup provides a chance for the visitors to respond in a big way against a nationally ranked opponent. Can the Bears pull it off, or will the Mustangs stomp them out?
Let’s dive into the details with an SMU Mustangs vs. Baylor Bears prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
SMU Mustangs vs. Baylor Bears preview, prediction
No. 17 SMU Mustangs
Southern Methodist University saw one of their best football seasons in decades last year with an 11-3 finish and an 8-0 run through the ACC en route to a College Football Playoff appearance. After returning quarterback Kevin Jennings, expectations are again high as this team works toward another conference title. While the Mustangs saw some turnover this offseason with just eight total 2024 starters back in the lineup, they addressed much of that through the transfer portal with a pair of offensive linemen, two defensive linemen and a handful of other talents.
SMU kicked off their 2025 season against East Texas A&M, cruising their way to a 42-13 win. Jennings played a solid game overall with a 22-for-30 passing line for 260 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while receiver Romello Brinson posted seven receptions for 121 yards and a score. They’ll absolutely continue as an elite pairing this season and look to take advantage of this Baylor defense, though their own defense may face a tough battle in this game. SMU allowed 351 total yards last week against an FCS program, so it’s evident they may need some time to gel heading into the next couple of games.
Baylor Bears
The Baylor Bears went 8-5 last season and hope to compete in the Big 12 once again in 2025. After returning 13 starters, including eight on offense, the pieces are in place for this team to grow and improve over this season. The most important piece came back in quarterback Sawyer Robertson, as well as halfback Bryson Washington, receivers Josh Cameron and Ashton Hawkins, as well as most of the offensive line. That continuity will prove crucial, but it didn’t save the Bears to open their campaign.
Baylor dropped their first game to the Auburn Tigers in a 38-24 final. The good news is that Robertson completed 27-of-48 passes for 419 yards and three touchdowns while Kole Wilson emerged with eight catches for 134 yards alongside Michael Trigg’s 7-99-1 receiving line. The bad news is that the Bears allowed 415 total yards, 307 of which came on the ground as they were gashed by Auburn’s run game all evening. Despite bringing in plenty of transfer talent, the defense still looked very rough to open the year.
SMU vs. Baylor pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists SMU as three-point favorites with -142 odds on the Moneyline. Baylor holds +120 odds of an outright upset with the game total set at 63.5.
To be frank, this matchup has all the makings of a shootout. These offenses both returned their talented quarterbacks who can both sling it in pass-happy offenses alongside plenty of receiver talent. On the flip side, neither defense impressed to open the season and there are some serious concerns on that side of the ball for Baylor in particular. Will SMU take advantage of that? Absolutely.
How much the Mustangs run the ball will prove intriguing. No halfback logged more than nine carries last week as SMU looked to keep their guys fresh with the lead, and while the raw yardage total for each player didn’t look incredible, Chris Johnson Jr. and T.J. Harden were each efficient with 7.3 and 5.2 yards per carry. If they can repeat such a performance, it could prove a very long day for the Bears’ defense in the ground game.
The total feels high, but again, this is shootout material. Take the over on Saturday.
