The Steelers visit the Jets at MetLife Stadium in Week 1 of the NFL season in a game that has storylines galore. Last year’s Week 1 starters Justin Fields and Aaron Rodgers have swapped places as Rodgers will wear the Black and Yellow while Fields will don the Green and White on Sunday.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Pittsburgh is favored by three points and this game carries a total of 38.5 points.
Below, I break down this matchup between the Steelers and the Jets and give a pick for the game.
Steelers vs. Jets prediction
This game has the lowest points total of the Week 1 slate for a reason. Both of these squads pride themselves on defense and have a ton of new faces on the offensive side of the football.
For the Steelers, almost all of their skill position players are new. Of course, there’s quarterback Aaron Rodgers in his first year as a Steeler, but also WR DK Metcalf, TE Jonnu Smith and rookie RB Kaleb Johnson. That’s a lot of fresh faces to try and gel together in one offseason.
There is a little less player turnover for the Jets, but they bring in an entirely new staff and a new face at quarterback with Justin Fields. They also added TE Mason Taylor in the second round of the NFL draft and have some new faces at receiver, such as Josh Reynolds.
Both teams will look to play defense, run the football and not turn it over in what should be a one-score game throughout. Whoever executes better in the fourth quarter will likely start the season 1-0.
Steelers vs. Jets pick, best bet
I am going to take the Jets to cover the field goal spread at home in this one. It might not be pretty, but I think New York can do just enough on offense to cover this number. I’m not picking them to necessarily win the game, but I think they cover and keep this one very close.
The biggest challenge will be keeping the loaded Steelers’ defensive line quiet. Former first round picks at tackle, Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou, will have their hands full on Sunday. The Jets will look to run the football, protect it, and then look for deep shots down the field to Garrett Wilson when the opportunity presents itself. Justin Fields just needs to do enough to keep this offense ticking over, and I think his scrambling and running the ball could be another difference maker in this game.
Defensively, I think the Jets might concede a touchdown or two but they have more than enough to keep the Steelers quiet. They were especially good against the pass a season ago, ranking third in the league in that category. While the Steelers have a lot of new pieces, they were 26th in passing yards per game in 2024. Look for Pittsburgh to pound the rock with Jaylen Warren and Kaleb Johnson as a one-two punch.
This is going to be a good old-fashioned physical football game, and it could go either way. I’ll take the home team with the points in this spot.
