Two programs with very different 2024 stories collide under the lights in Starkville. No. 12 Arizona State arrives as the defending Big 12 champion, fresh off a 38-19 tune-up over Northern Arizona. Mississippi State is in year two under Jeff Lebby, trying to prove last season’s 2-10 reset is behind it after a crisp 34-17 win at Southern Miss. It’s also a rematch: the Sun Devils beat the Bulldogs 30-23 last year in Tempe, and Starkville hasn’t forgotten. Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 2’s game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Mississippi State vs. Arizona State prediction, preview
Cowbells return for a true test, with Arizona State laying 6.5 and a 58.5 total in Starkville. Mississippi State handled Southern Miss 34-17, finishing with a 100% postgame win expectancy and 465 total yards. Arizona State beat Northern Arizona 38-19, producing 460 yards but going 1-for-10 on third down offensively. Bulldogs QB Blake Shapen completed 26-of-33 for 270 yards with one touchdown and one interception in his first start since injury. Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt threw 25-of-39 for 257 yards, two touchdowns, and ran for 73 yards with two additional rushing scores.
Let’s look at the Bulldogs’ explosive and efficiency metrics, which traveled in Week 1 and might be even more prevalent at home in Week 2. Mississippi State posted a +12.75 opponent-adjusted explosive play margin against Southern Miss, limiting chunk plays defensively. The Bulldogs allowed only 301 yards, though they surrendered 10-of-19 third downs that must tighten against better speed. Last season they allowed 6.3 yards per play and 34.1 points, with an SEC-worst 3% sack rate. Arizona State just allowed 0.11 EPA per rush to FCS Northern Arizona, a worrying early run-efficiency marker.
Matchups swing toward playmakers and personnel availability. Jordyn Tyson commanded 12 receptions for 141 yards and two scores, stressing single coverage repeatedly. Mississippi State’s corners graded well last week, but standout Jett Jefferson’s status remains uncertain entering kickoff. Davon Booth rushed for 79 yards while Fluff Bothwell scored twice, giving balance to Jeff Lebby’s uptempo scheme. Arizona State stuffed thirteen opponents under 100 rushing yards since 2023, yet leaked explosives and lanes in the opener.
Arizona State vs. Mississippi State pick, best bet
Environment will matter with 60,000 cowbells amplifying communication stress for a tempo offense. Arizona State has won 10 of 13 outright, yet covered only intermittently when laying near a touchdown on the road. Mississippi State expects 65-plus snaps, forcing depth tests and substitution discipline for the Sun Devils in humidity. Shapen’s 76.5% completion rate complements vertical threats Brenen Thompson and Seydou Traore in layered route structures. Arizona State’s 1-for-10 third-down mark and sloppy penalties last week hint at drive-killing variance against pressure looks.
Here’s the betting angle. Arizona State’s offense averaged 32.9 points last season with 429 yards per game. Northern Arizona still gained 331 yards, exposing some early defensive slippage. Mississippi State yielded 471 yards per game last year but only 301 in the opener. Edge rusher Will Whitson logged a sack and four hurries, earning weekly SEC honors. Kyle Ferrie hit a program-record 55-yard field goal, adding hidden special teams value. Leavitt’s legs stress man coverage, but disciplined spies can squeeze scrambles into modest gains. Davon Booth’s north-south style attacks Arizona State’s early run-fit inefficiency and 0.11 rushing EPA allowed. Shapen’s anticipation beats blitz looks, and selective keepers boost red-zone conversion equity.
Markets still slightly favor the visitors. I project a one-possession game either way, with explosives and special teams determining the swing. Home dogs carry extra value. Give me the home crowd, the healthier quarterback, and the points in a volatile matchup.
Best bet: Mississipi State +6.5 (-110) vs. Arizona State
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