At 6:40 p.m. EST on Saturday, the New York Mets (76-65) take on the Cincinnati Reds (70-71) at Great American Ball Park for the second outing of a three-game series. These two NL teams are both vying for a Wild Card berth, and with Cincy slipping further out of the picture, the remainder of this series could hold real consequences for the postseason picture.
Here’s a Reds vs. Mets prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for today’s action.
Reds vs. Mets prediction, preview
These two squads enter Saturday in drastically different form. The Mets are 6-4 across their last 10 games but are playing far better baseball than that record would indicate, at least at the plate. Over their last two weeks, they’ve paced the entire MLB with 98 runs in 13 games, an average of over 7.5 trips across the dish per contest. The bats are obviously hot, ranking second in batting average (.302) and OPS (.918) and home runs (26), but it’s not just that they’re making contact well. The Mets also rank first in walks (58) and stolen bases (25), all while striking out the sixth-fewest times (94). Overall, everything is falling into place for this lineup, especially with Juan Soto hitting .308 with a 1.141 OPS and 12 homers over his last 30 games.
Meanwhile, the Reds are a paltry 2-8 across their last 10 contests, a slide which couldn’t have come at a worse time. While they were legitimately in the Wild Card picture a couple of weeks ago, Cincinnati now finds themselves a full six games back of a postseason berth. Poor performance at the plate is a major part of the equation — they’re 21st in scoring over the last two weeks with 52 runs in 12 games, an average of 4.33 per outing. While the Reds are connecting with the ball with the 11th-best average over that span (.258) along with the 16th-best OPS (.731), they’re struggling to drive in runs and aren’t bashing many homers either as they fall 26th in the stat (11). With baseball’s fourth worst ISO over that span (.143), they simply aren’t picking up extra bases.
Neither pitching staff has truly excelled over this sample, with the Mets ranking 17th in ERA (4.70) and the Reds falling 28th (5.91). Brady Singer (4.08 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 140 SO) starts for Cincinnati today against New York rookie Jonah Tong (1.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, six SO) in just his second MLB start.
Reds vs. Mets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mets as -136 Moneyline favorites on the road while the Reds come in as +112 underdogs at home. The run total sits at nine for the matchup.
Singer has posted a respectable season overall, even if his advanced metrics profile doesn’t look the most impressive. He’s thrown exceptionally well as of late in particular, posting a 5-1 record with a 2.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his last seven starts as well. That’s not exactly an encouraging sign for the Mets, however, it’s incredibly difficult to trust Cincinnati in this matchup given their poor form. Once Singer exits the game, the Reds must try to make up for a bullpen that ranks sixth-worst in the sport since August 1 with a 4.69 ERA with the second-worst FIP at 5.25.
That’s a very poor equation against a New York lineup that’s truly one of the best in the MLB at the moment. While Tong’s performance serves as the unknown factor today given this marks his second professional start, the Mets are hitting the cover off the baseball and look like they can produce plenty of run support for their rookie. Were Singer not pitching today, I’d move toward the Mets run line. However, we’re sticking with the safer Moneyline pick instead.
Best bet: NY Mets ML (-136)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
