This late kickoff in Provo pits programs headed opposite directions. BYU looks organized, explosive, and fresh under Kalani Sitake. Stanford enters rebuilding mode under interim coach Frank Reich. Recent form could not be more different after Week 1. BYU throttled Portland State 69-0 at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Stanford blew a 10-0 lead and fell 23-20 at Hawaii. Markets reflect the gulf, listing BYU -20.5 with totals near 45.5. BYU has won 11 straight September home games. Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 2’s game between the BYU Cougars and the Stanford Cardinal on Saturday night.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
BYU vs. Stanford prediction, preview
Stanford’s opener painted an alarming efficiency picture. The Cardinal produced 286 total yards on just 3.92 yards per play. Ben Gulbranson completed 15 of 30 passes for 109 yards. His PFF passing grade measured 29.3, worst among starting quarterbacks. He delivered three turnover-worthy throws and zero big-time throws. They leaned on the run with 43 attempts for 177 yards. Micah Ford handled 26 carries for 113 yards and one touchdown. Stanford still managed only 20 points across 73 offensive snaps. They posted 21 first downs and held the ball 36:07. Explosive passes were nonexistent, shrinking already tight running lanes.
BYU looked like a machine in every phase. The Cougars amassed 606 yards and 28 first downs on 66 snaps. That’s 9.2 yards per play with devastating drive efficiency. The ground game mauled, posting 468 rushing yards on 48 attempts. LJ Martin ripped 131 yards on eight carries, outrageous explosiveness. True freshman Bear Bachmeier needed only 11 throws for three touchdowns. He added two rushing scores while completely avoiding negative plays. Jay Hill’s defense suffocated, allowing 51 total yards and minus-five rushing. Opponents completed only 16 passes for 56 yards against disciplined coverage. BYU also posted a 57% first-down success rate that sustains pressure.
Stanford vs. BYU pick, best bet
The matchup advantages stack for BYU in the trenches. Stanford’s defense allowed Hawaii 5.8 yards per carry in Week Zero. Their run fits now face a massive step up Saturday. Stanford generated pressure on just 10 of 49 Hawaii dropbacks. BYU’s line allowed zero pressures last week and returns veteran depth. Bachmeier excels with clean pockets and defined progression reads. Jay Hill’s front created pressure on 48% of snaps and tackled crisply. Stanford must beat man coverage, yet separation has repeatedly lagged. Trends echo it: BYU 11-5 ATS last sixteen, Stanford 2-7-1 ATS. The spread climbed from -18 to -20.5 as money backed BYU.
Game state likely tilts toward a controlled BYU avalanche. Early stops push Stanford off script and into Gulbranson dropbacks. That scenario favors Hill’s simulated pressures and creeper looks. BYU can then hammer with Martin and efficient play-action shots. Short fields compound things, stretching a defense already leaking efficiency. I respect under angles, including first-half under 23.5 considerations. Still, the efficiency gap overwhelms the number for me. My projection bunches around BYU 38, Stanford 10 in Provo.
Still, I don’t want us to suffer because of the wiggle tonight. No hook heartbreak. We’re buying down to BYU -19.5 for -135 just to hopefully take an extra sweat out of our late-night slips.
Best bet: BYU -19.5 (-135) vs. Stanford
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