Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce made major headlines last week when he announced his engagement to pop icon Taylor Swift. Now, the future Hall of Famer will attempt to make more headlines on the field as he begins his 13th and possibly final season in the NFL with a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at 8 p.m. ET tonight at the Corinthians Arena in São Paulo, Brazil.
The Chiefs, who became the first team in NFL history to win two consecutive Super Bowls and then advance to the championship game the next season, have +400 odds of making their fourth straight Super Bowl. Only the Buffalo Bills — who lost the Super Bowl each season between 1991 and 1994 — have accomplished that feat.
Kansas City is a three-point favorite tonight at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 46.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Swifties’ favorite football player.
Best Travis Kelce Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Travis Kelce U48.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Kelce finally showed some signs of his age in 2024 as the entire Chiefs offense regressed somewhat. He notched only one 100-yard receiving game during the regular season, and he wouldn’t have gotten there if he hadn’t racked up 26 yards in overtime as Kansas City edged out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 30-24. Though he turned back the clock somewhat with a seven-catch, 117-yard performance against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, he was mostly invisible in the AFC Championship against the Buffalo Bills and the Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles, totaling just 10 targets, six catches, and 58 yards between those two games.
Of course, the Chargers’ defense isn’t that flawless Eagles unit, but it’s still not bad. Last season, Los Angeles allowed the 11th-fewest yards to tight ends despite being targeted the 11th-most times. In fact, by Pro Football Focus’ grades, the Chargers finished the season as the league’s third-ranked coverage unit, behind only Philadelphia and the Chiefs. All-Pro safety Derwin James allowed just a 62.1% completion percentage and a 74.2 passer rating on his 58 targets last season, finishing with the 12th-best coverage grade at his position. Given that Kelce typically lined up in the slot last season, he’s likely to match up mostly against James and Tahreeb Still, who had a 73.3 coverage grade last season.
Plus, he might struggle to rack up yards after the catch against Los Angeles. James is one of the best pound-for-pound tacklers in football, ranking 21st among safeties in tackles and posting a top-sextile missed tackle rate. Kelce recorded 89 yards in his first game against the Chargers last season but just 45 in the second, managing only 14 yards after the catch in the latter. Plus, the grass at Corinthians Arena was notably slippery last season, and though some changes were made to the surface in July, it remains to be seen whether it’ll be a factor.
Travis Kelce O5.5 Receptions (+115)
Kelce could still get six receptions, though, in part because Patrick Mahomes’ pass-catching options look to be thin this season. Rashee Rice, who was expected to provide a boost after missing most of last season with a torn LCL, will be sidelined for the first six games after being suspended for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy, and fourth-round rookie Jalen Royals didn’t travel with the team while he recovers from a knee inury. With Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster underwhelming options, Kelce should be the clear second fiddle behind Xavier Worthy.
Kelce getting six receptions wouldn’t necessarily mean that he’d record 49 or more receiving yards. Kansas City operated a more conservative offense last season, with Mahomes posting the lowest intended air yards per pass attempt figure of his career and the third-lowest figure in the league. That conservatism trickled down to Kelce, who posted the lowest average depth of target and after-the-catch figures of his career and breaking the fewest tackles. At this stage in his career, Kelce might be more of a reliable possession receiver than a deep threat.
