This is the second contest of a three-game series in New York between the Yankees and visiting Toronto Blue Jays.
Max Scherzer is scheduled to pitch for Toronto, while Luis Gil is slated to start for New York.
Blue Jays at Yankees prediction, preview
Max Scherzer has a 4.11 ERA and 4.93 FIP through 70 innings. The BABIP is low at .257, while the strand rate is high at 81.7%. Scherzer “only” has a strikeout rate of 22%. He’s 41 years old! Man, in his prime, the strikeout rate was 35%. He’s done a relatively good job of limiting hard contact, as the average exit velocity is 87.8 mph and the hard-hit rate is 34.7%. The barrel rate, though, is 11.9%, and he’s already given up 15 home runs.
Ten of the 15 home runs have come off the bats of lefties. Eleven of the 15 have been served up at home. The K-BB% is 21.9% against righties but only 11.7% against lefties. The FIP is 5.83 against lefties vs. 3.83 against righties. The FIP is 5.81 at home and 3.74 on the road.
In 13 starts, Scherzer has allowed more than three earned runs three times. He’s gone at least six innings seven times. He faced the Yankees twice this season. At the end of June at home, he went five innings, did not walk a batter, and struck out seven while allowing two earned runs on three hits. At the end of July, at home again, he went five innings, walked one, and struck out four while allowing four earned runs on five hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees rank seventh in strikeout rate and first in ISO. Their wOBA ranks first in MLB.
Luis Gil made his season debut on August 3 after being shut down with a lat injury. Since then, he’s started six games and thrown 29.1 innings. He’s averaging 95.4 mph on the fastball and posting a 3.68 ERA with a 3.99 FIP. The BABIP is elevated at .325, but the walk rate is a whopping 14.6%. The strikeout rate is 22.3%, but the chase rate is only 22.7%. The hard-hit rate is just 35.4%, but the barrel rate is 11%.
The K-BB% is only 4.3% against lefties, while the FIP is 4.27. The strikeout rate is 26.2% against righties, but the walk rate is 14.8%. Gil has been site-neutral.
In his six starts, Gil has pitched five innings in each of the last five. In the opener, he allowed five earned runs in 3.1 innings. Since then, he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any outing. This will be his first time facing Toronto this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays have the lowest strikeout rate, the 12th-best ISO, and rank third in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Toronto has the 19th-lowest FIP, while New York ranks 11th..
Blue Jays at Yankees pick, best bet
The total of 9.5 seemed too high initially, but then I thought about the Yankees lefties and that short porch in right field. In addition, the Blue Jays don’t strike out often and have pop. Gil has done well in run prevention, but the lack of control could come back to bite him.
