Let’s just roll right into the regularly-scheduled programming here for fantasy football, shall we? We’ve already gotten concerning(/as of this morning, kinda reassuring?) news re. Christian McCaffrey’s “calf” (it’s his Achilles tendonitis, folks); we’ve seen an A.J. Brown dud; we’ve seen Jaydon Blue be a healthy scratch. Best laid plans, man. They’re toast already. But never toast are the Five Lists of Five, which feel a bit more important already before even the main slate of Week 1. We need to hunt for stashes, dart throws, breakouts, and, probably most importantly, running back sleepers.
The refrain remains the same—All I want is for you to be better than your friends. You’re going to be surrounded by them on Sunday, probably. How sweet would it be if you could be sure you’ve checked every box possible that might guarantee you a resounding victory this week? Some kick-your-feet-up insights? I’ve got some.
I know my audience. The smoke-break audience. The quick-scan-of-the-phone-on-the-way-to-the-fridge audience. The give-me-as-much-info-as-possible-as-fast-as-possible audience. I’m a man of the people.
And so: the Five Lists of Five series. Think of these as byte-sized, two-minutes-to-yourself lists to scan during your weekend as you foam at the mouth for any competitive fantasy edge. As much relevant analysis as I can fit into, like, ~250 words per player.
Below: Top five smash starts for fantasy football Week 1. Must-starters based on matchup and sky-high ceiling.
Here are the other offerings from my 2025 Fantasy Football Five Lists of Five: Week 1 edition:
- Top five sleeper running backs for 2025 fantasy football Week 1
- Top five players to stash for Week 1 of 2025 fantasy football
- Top five sleeper wide receivers for 2025 fantasy football Week 1
- Top five WR/CB matchups to target in 2025 fantasy football Week 1
Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all preseason and fantasy draft kit content—as well as plenty of NFL betting goodies—all summer long. All my other fantasy football draft kit content is at the bottom of this list!
Top five smash starts for Week 1 of 2025 fantasy football
Tucker Kraft, TE, Packers (vs Lions)
Green Bay opens with Detroit, not Minnesota, and Kraft remains a near every-down F/Y. Last year his route participation climbed into the ~75–80% band when Luke Musgrave was sidelined, and usage carried into 2025 camp. The Packers ran 11 personnel on nearly 70% of snaps, a top-12 rate, ensuring Kraft stays active. Detroit’s nickel conceded a 70.2% catch rate to slot receivers in 2024, ranking 26th league-wide. That dovetails with Kraft’s YAC profile—contact balance and first-man-missed ability that consistently shows up on TE screens and play-action leaks.
Expect 6–8 targets, with 2–3 red-zone looks baked in. Green Bay loves shovel and stack wrinkles near the goal line, and Kraft’s finishing ability makes him the natural option. His contested-catch reliability makes him a third-down favorite for Jordan Love, converting layups into drive extenders. Detroit’s nickel, usually Amik Robertson or Avonte Maddox, can be forced into unfavorable leverage by motion. If Brian Branch rotates down, Kraft exploits seams behind him.
The Packers’ plan is simple: punish aggressive nickel rotations with play-action boots, slides, and quick screens. If Detroit dials simulated pressure, Kraft becomes the release valve. The usage floor is steady, and schemed red-zone designs supply ceiling. Projection: six receptions, 55–65 yards, with strong touchdown equity. Lock him in as a top-eight tight end.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons (vs Buccaneers)
Let’s get really freaky to start the season, shall we? Your preseason TE18 (and my preseason TE12): Kyle Pitts! On a must-start list!
Atlanta faces Tampa Bay, and Pitts’ role realigns with Michael Penix Jr.’s vertical arm. His aDOT normalized into the 10–11 yard range last year, restoring his intermediate leverage routes. He closed 2024 ranked top-5 in contested-catch yards, evidence of improved finishing. Tampa plays aggressive at the second level and rotates safeties late, opening voids for glance routes and overs.
Atlanta’s play-action rate spikes at home. Expect 7–9 targets, 80+ air yards, and two to three red-zone designs. In 12 personnel, Pitts disguises run while springing isolation crossers and fades. His length converts tight windows into completions, and Bijan Robinson’s gravity pulls safeties away. Penix layers deep digs and Y-cross concepts into those spaces, forcing linebackers to flip hips late.
The Buccaneers allowed over eight yards per attempt on intermediate throws in 2024. That’s Pitts’ sweet spot, where his frame and athleticism overwhelm coverage. In money downs, his catch radius becomes the quarterback’s built-in outlet. Volume and usage align here: Atlanta designed him to be the centerpiece in these situations.
This isn’t projection—it’s confirmed structure plus matchup. Pitts’ ceiling is elite, and the floor sits firmly in TE1 territory. Start him as a top-five option Week 1.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins (at Colts)
Miami travels to Indianapolis, where Lou Anarumo’s new defense disguises but still leans zone—a canvas Waddle is made for. In 2024, he averaged 49.6 receiving yards per game across 15 games, with 12.8 yards per reception. In his run as a full-time target, he posted 2.14 yards per route run, 64.6 receiving yards per game, and 0.114 first downs per route run.
That high-volume, short-area role delivers dependable efficiency and consistent floor.
Expect 8–10 targets, aided by RPO slants and stack alignments that exploit Indy’s off-coverage tendencies. His burst ensures extra yards after the catch, converting soft coverage into chain-moving gains. With Tyreek Hill drawing bracket attention, Waddle’s opportunities increase.
In the red zone, look for designed sprint-outs and quick pivots to stress linebackers in conflict. His ceiling? Turning one broken tackle into a long gain. Projection: eight receptions, around 85 yards, and strong touchdown upside with red-zone RPOs.
This is secure, high-floor WR2 usage with pop—perfect for Week 1 lineups.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (vs Chargers — São Paulo)
Kansas City’s neutral-site opener is tailor-made for Pacheco. He ranked among the league leaders in 2023 with elite production behind contact—posting 1.63 yards after contact per attempt and holding a 6% missed-tackle rate following his 2024 return. That earned him a spot near the top in explosive-run rate and YAC efficiency.
In 2024, after returning from injury, Pacheco logged 310 yards on 83 carries (3.7 avg.) and 12 grabs for 79 receiving yards in just seven games. Across his career through 2024, he’s accumulated 2,075 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) along with 69 receptions for 453 yards, demonstrating reliability both on the ground and in the passing game. His explosiveness isn’t just theoretical—he produced the fourth-highest rushing success rate (45.8%) among backs with 150+ carries since entering the league.
Expect 17–20 touches with multiple goal-line opportunities and a realistic path to 90 total yards and a touchdown. The Chargers’ defense struggled with run sustainability, and Reid will lean into simplicity and physical play. Pacheco’s combination of volume, explosive finish, and red-zone trust delivers a high floor with upside.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals (at Saints)
Arizona heads to New Orleans, and Harrison Jr. steps immediately into WR1 usage. As a rookie, he caught 62 passes for 885 yards and eight touchdowns—coming as the fourth overall pick and playing 17 games—mirroring Hall-of-Famer expectations. He also led Cardinals wideouts with 116 targets and a 22.2% target share.
Expect a 26–28% share in Week 1, reflecting both manufactured touches and boundary isolations. His collegiate résumé—2.9+ yards per route run versus press corners—wasn’t a fluke, and his physical development, with added muscle in the offseason, supports a leap in dominance.
The Saints will roll safety help, but Arizona counters with stacks, motion, and reduced splits to ensure free releases. From those alignments, Harrison dominates on digs, double-moves, and back-shoulder fades. In the red zone, he’s the isolation hammer—fade-stop or quick in-breaker at will.
Arizona scripts rhythm first, then aggression. Early slants and glance routes soften coverage, then deep overs punish overplaying safeties. On third down, Harrison’s reliability on sit routes supplies a consistent chain-moving floor. His ceiling resides in turning leverage wins into explosive 30-yard gains.
Volume stabilizes him. Expect 8–10 targets, 90+ yards, and clear touchdown equity. You drafted him to play him immediately. This is set-and-forget WR1 usage. And it’ll be the beginning of his true breakout season.
