The Padres and Rockies meet in an NL West matchup at Coors Field on Friday night to open a three-game set. The Rockies have plenty of excitement already in this homestand, and the Padres bring drama of their own as they roll into the Mile High City for Friday night’s 8:40 p.m. ET series opener.
The Padres come into the series 76-64, second in the NL West and in the second NL Wild Card spot. They’re four games behind the Cubs for the top NL Wild Card spot and one game ahead of the Mets for the third spot. The Giants are five games back, but they or the Reds could still mount a charge and catch San Diego if it keeps sinking. The Padres have dropped four straight and eight of their last 10, including an ugly sweep at home at the hands of the Orioles. On the other side, the Rockies have lost seven of eight and were just swept by the Giants.
The Padres are heavily favored at -220 this Friday, with the run total at 10.5 due to the elevation of Coors Field. Let’s preview this Friday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Rockies prediction, preview
Facing the Rockies could be just what the Padres need to get back on track. Earlier this season, they swept the Rockies in San Diego with three straight shutouts by a combined score of 16-0. They rolled into Coors Field in May and won 21-0 and 13-9 before the Rockies salvaged the series finale, 9-3.
The Padres give the ball to Nick Pivetta on Friday, who is 13-4 on the season with an impressive 2.84 ERA and 3.36 FIP. Pivetta has been especially strong at home, but he also has been good regardless of location recently, giving up two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts with a 1.94 ERA and 3.13 FIP. He is coming off back-to-back no-decisions, but has pitched at least five innings in each of his last 12 starts.
The Rockies are going back to Kyle Freeland, who started on Tuesday against the Giants with explosive results. He only lasted two hitters before getting into a heated exchange with Rafael Devers, getting ejected after eight pitches and no outs recorded.
Freeland gave up five runs in five innings in a loss to the Padres the only time he faced them this year and is 3-14 on the year with a 5.41 ERA overall and a 6.71 ERA at Coors Field. Freeland has a 6.00 ERA and 6.61 FIP over his last eight games, with only a strong outing in St. Louis breaking the string of ugly results.
The Padres’ offense hasn’t been rolling, but the matchup with Freeland could be a good chance for them to turn it around. Even though they haven’t typically mashed lefties, a few do have good history against Freeland.
I highlighted Ramon Laureano as a good value in my home run props of the day, and it should also be a good spot for Fernando Tatis Jr., who mashes at Coors Field, and Manny Machado, who is 17-for-51 (.333) against Freeland in their past matchups but has never hit a home run in the head-to-head.
Freeland will be on such short rest, so it’s hard to know exactly how long he’ll be able to go. But the Rockies’ bullpen is also a good matchup for the Padres, so they’ll be a strong play even after Freeland departs.
The Rockies have a 7.00 ERA in their 44 games since the All-Star break, and have given up an MLB-high 1.95 HR/9 and a 1.67 WHIP in those contests. The pitching staff has been rough enough that they’re a good matchup at Coors Field even if the wind is blowing in or there’s some rain in the forecast.
The rarified air and the matchup should be enough to jumpstart San Diego’s lineup this weekend.
Padres vs. Rockies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Padres over 6.5 runs (+100)
This total is high, but given how productive the Padres have been at Coors this season and how bad Freeland and the Rockies have been, it feels like the Padres could go off to erase the bad taste from the sweep to start the week.
Strong Lean: Kyle Freeland under 15.5 outs recorded (-110)
The zero outs recorded in his last start throws off his average a little bit, but even before that, on regular rest, Freeland wasn’t normally going deep into games. He’s been under this total in five of his last seven contests, including each of his last three starts. Even though he only threw eight pitches, he did go through his full warm-up routine for the game, so he could be on a shorter leash Friday.
