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Patrick Mahomes best prop bets for Chiefs vs. Chargers in Week 1

Patrick Mahomes best prop bets for Chiefs vs. Chargers in Week 1

Sports Betting Picks NFL DraftKings Sportsbook Insights Rail

Published:

By: Alex Hunter

The Chiefs begin their season by hosting the Chargers on Friday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by three points and this game carries a total of 46.5 points.

Below, I have featured my favorite Patrick Mahomes prop to consider from this contest.

Best Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook

Patrick Mahomes Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-112)

While the Chiefs advanced to their third straight Super Bowl last season, Mahomes wasn’t as efficient as usual in the regular season. The quarterback averaged a career-low 6.9 YPA, which finished 29th of 45 eligible quarterbacks. Additionally, Mahomes averaged a career-low 245.5 passing yards per game and he finished 17th in passer rating.

The Chargers also gave Mahomes problems last season, limiting him to 245 and 210 passing yards, respectively, in his two meetings with the division rival. Last season, Los Angeles’ pass defense was great, giving up the third-fewest yards per pass in the NFL (6.3) and the eighth-fewest passing yards per game to quarterbacks (221.1). The Chargers only allowed four of the 17 quarterbacks that faced them to exceed 245.5 passing yards and, to make matters worse, Los Angeles played at a very slow pace, averaging the fourth-fewest plays per game (54.5).

This isn’t an ideal spot for Mahomes to have a huge day yardage wise and Rashee Rice (suspension) being unavailable for the Chiefs certainly doesn’t help, either. Mahomes falling short of this 245.5 passing yard prop feels likely and he is a strong wager for under this number.

Alex Hunter
Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player and sports handicapper, who has been a proud member of the DraftKings Network team since 2020. He is a data-driven analyst, who earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has been in the sports content business for nearly a decade, covering the NBA, NFL and PGA TOUR. Alex is a diehard Boston Celtics fan, who loves to be on the golf course when he isn’t grinding lineups or producing content. For all of Alex’s work or if you need any lineup advice, be sure to follow him @Hunta512 on X.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.