The Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins were two of the last teams eliminated from playoff contention in 2024. Indianapolis was officially eliminated after Week 17, while Miami was technically in with a shot until the last day of the season. Both teams will try to start 2025 off right when they open their seasons with a clash against each other at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.
This season is pivotal for Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis’ star receiver coming off of a down year. After reaching the 1,000-yard mark in two of his first four seasons, Pittman managed just 69 catches for 808 yards and three scores, all of which represented his lowest totals since his rookie season. His 50.5% success rate and 62.2% catch rate were also career lows. He finished with just the 46th-best overall grade among wide receivers at Pro Football Focus — third on his own team.
It’s fair to expect at least somewhat of a bounce-back from Pittman this season, as going from Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco to Daniel Jones is probably a slight upgrade. Richardson threw more interceptions than touchdowns last season and completed fewer than 50% of his passes, while Jones’ lowest completion percentage was the 61.9% that he posted in 2019 and he’s only had a sub-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio once. Jones recorded a better passing, running, and receiving grade than Richardson in 2024, and he helped coax Malik Nabers to 607 yards in his first eight games before being released by the New York Giants.
The Colts’ pass-catching corps is somewhat crowded now, with Josh Downs and Alec Pierce — both of whom recorded more receiving yards than Pittman last season — now joined by rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who was drafted 14th overall after leading the Big Ten in receptions in his senior season at Penn State. Pittman still received the most targets last season (111 to Downs’ 107), but Downs had a higher success rate and a higher catch rate. Downs is a small slot receiver whose targets shouldn’t come directly at the expense of Pittman’s, but Warren could serve as the preferred jump ball target this season.
Still, Pittman’s fantasy ceiling should be pretty high against a Dolphins defense that ranked as the league’s eighth-worst coverage unit last season and lost the eight secondary members who posted their highest coverage grades. Right now, their starting cornerbacks are Jack Jones — who put up the 12th-worst coverage grade among qualified cornerbacks last season — Storm Duck, and fifth-round rookie Jason Marshall Jr.
Getting Minkah Fitzpatrick back in the Jalen Ramsey deal was solid, but the three-time First-Team All-Pro selection allowed a 127.6 passer rating on his 52 targets last season, and regardless, Fitzpatrick won’t be guarding Pittman much. Pittman had a solid three-catch, 63-yard performance against Miami last season and should be set for another strong outing on Sunday. He receives a tentative start classification.
Start or Sit: Start Michael Pittman Jr.
