The Yankees and Blue Jays begin a pivotal three-game series on Friday, Sep. 5. Toronto won the last series 2-1.
New York is a -132 favorite, while Toronto is +109 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under nine runs.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Friday’s Yankees vs. Blue Jays matchup.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction
The Yankees are three games behind the Blue Jays for the AL East lead, so this series is incredibly important for both sides. A sweep in either direction would be monumental as the regular season winds down.
New York has the home-field advantage, and it has been playing well lately, albeit against the Nationals, White Sox and Astros — two of three are weak squads. Cam Schlittler will start for the team tonight. The rookie right hander is having a strong season through nine starts, owning a 2.61 ERA and 54 strikeouts across 48.1 innings.
Schlittler had a few hiccups earlier this year, but he’s been excellent in his most recent starts. He’s allowed one, zero, zero and one earned runs in his last four performances, pitching to at least six innings in three of them. He struck out eight in each of those six-inning starts.
The one caveat is that his last four starts are against the Twins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox. They’re not the toughest competition, but it’s still good news that Schlittler handled them. The Blue Jays are a much more difficult ask for a rookie. Toronto averages the fourth most runs per game in the majors this year, trailing just the Yankees, Brewers and Dodgers. This is a huge test for Schlittler.
Kevin Gausman is starting for the Blue Jays, so it’ll be a veteran vs. rookie matchup in New York. The right hander is having yet another solid season with the Blue Jays, holding a 3.75 ERA through 160.2 innings.
He’s not perfect either, but Gausman is coming off a great performance against the Brewers. He allowed just four hits and one earned run through seven innings while striking out eight. The problem came after he left the game as Toronto’s bullpen allowed three earned runs in the top of the ninth.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks 18th in the majors with a 4.15 ERA. Against a potent offense like New York, it can be worrisome for Toronto bettors. That said, New York has an even worse bullpen despite mid-season acquisitions. The Yankees rank 23rd with a 4.32 bullpen ERA.
Unless Schlittler and Gausman pitch complete game gems, there’s likely to be some late-game offense in store tonight.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
While these are two of the top four offenses in the league, it should be a quiet first five innings. Schlittler and Gausman have both had good starts recently, so there’s momentum to be carried over to tonight.
The bullpens are a different story. Both units have struggled this year, notably New York’s. It could get messy later, and it’s best to avoid having money on the line when any of those pitchers enter the game.
Unless you want to sweat.