I’m not sure how loose the term “Wild Card race” is when talking about the National League, but if there is any doubt on who will claim the final postseason spot in the NL, the Mets can put that unrest to bed this weekend. New York will travel to Cincinnati to take on the Reds, who sit at .500 and are five games back in the standings.
Basically, with a little over three weeks left in the regular season, Cincinnati needs a sweep. Nothing else will do.
Can the Reds make Steve Cohen sweat a little? Let’s preview this pivotal September matchup with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Reds prediction, preview
While the flavor of the week with the Mets’ rotation is rookie phenoms, the “ace” of the staff is still likely David Peterson, who enters tonight’s tilt in possession of a 3.61 ERA and a 3.38 FIP across 152.0 innings of work in 2025. That said, Peterson is directly on the heels of his worst outing of the season, surrendering eight hits and eight earned runs to the lowly Marlins last Saturday. If the left-hander does have a red flag, it’s an elevated walk rate throughout his career, and that flaw has reared its ugly head in recent outings. In fact, Peterson has a 14.4% walk rate dating back to August 13. On the other hand, few pitchers do a better job of keeping the ball in the park, as Peterson’s surrendered the second-fewest opponent home runs per nine of any qualified player (0.53). A 94th percentile ground ball rate (55.8%) certainly helps in that regard.
Limiting fly balls is a key to surviving Great American Ball Park. That’s one advantage Peterson has working his in favor on Friday evening. Another is that the Reds haven’t been able to hit left-handed pitching at all so far this season. Cincinnati enters this matchup with a 78 wRC+ and a .122 ISO within the split — the latter representing the second-lowest mark in MLB. Elly De La Cruz is essentially the poster child for these team-wide issues, as the switch-hitter continues to struggle with LHPs. In 192 plate appearances versus southpaws in 2025, De La Cruz sports a .271 OBP and a 63 wRC+. Woof.
The Reds will also be sending a left-handed pitcher to the mound on Friday, as Andrew Abbott is set to make his 25th start of the season. To say that Abbott has been paramount to Cincinnati’s success this season would be an understatement. The LHP has registered a 2.65 ERA — the seventh-lowest mark among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings. Somehow, despite its reputation, Abbott’s been even better toeing the rubber at Great American Pall Bark in 2025, managing a 2.11 ERA over 14 starts. That includes holding the upstart Brewers scoreless across seven frames a couple weeks back. There’s no way around it. Abbott’s been on the NL’s best.
Mets vs. Reds pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 9 (-101)
Peterson and Abbott has been very consistent in 2025 and the Reds’ inability to hit LHPs looms large.
Strong Lean: Mets ML (-120)
Don’t overthink it. New York is the better team and its owns a MLB-best 154 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
