The Brewers dropped two of three at home to the Phillies to start the week, and they’ll go on the road to face the other Pennsylvania team as they take on the Pirates in the Apple TV+ game on Friday night. First pitch of this NL Central showdown at PNC Park is at 6:40 p.m. ET.
The Brewers still have the best record in the majors at 86-55 and are still five games ahead of the Phillies in the win column as they look to lock down the top spot in the National League. They’re 22 games ahead of the Pirates, who are 64-77 on the year but have been playing much better lately, going 7-2 in their last nine games. They are coming off an impressive sweep of the Dodgers and are an impressive 42-30 at home this season. If only they weren’t 22-47 on the road.
Since their record is so much better overall, the Brewers are -144 road favorites with the run total at 8.5. The forcast calls for temps in the 70s and a slight chance of showers with wings blowing right to left but not setting up a clear advantage for pitching or hitting. Let’s preview this Friday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Pirates prediction, preview
The Brewers will start the series by giving the ball to a former Pirate in Quinn Priester, who will take on Pirates righty Johan Oviedo on Friday night.
Oviedo is 2-0 in his four starts for Pittsburgh, allowing six runs with 20 strikeouts in 15 innings. He has allowed three hits or fewer in each of his four games, and his two wins have come against good lineups for the Blue Jays and Red Sox. He threw 79 pitches in his last outing and should be fully stretched out to take on a typical starter’s workload on Friday.
Priester has had a breakthrough year with the Brew Crew after joining the team in a trade from the Red Sox earlier this year. The Red Sox acquired Priester from the Pirates in July of 2024 after the Pirates drafted him in the first round in 2019. He made his MLB debut in Pittsburgh and pitched in 21 games for the team before his two trades.
He started in Pittsburgh on May 24 for Milwaukee, going six innings and allowing one run on six hits in a no-decision against his former team. He’s an impressive 11-2 with a 3.28 ERA and 4.29 FIP on the season, and he has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts, going 5-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings.
Since both starting pitchers have been fairly effective recently, this seems like a low-scoring game, which lines up with the 8.5 run total. Another way to back the starting pitchers is with an NFRI (no run first inning) bet, which is at -120. Priester has held opponents scoreless in the first inning in 13 of his 20 starts, including each of the last three, and Oviedo has not allowed a run in the first inning in either of his last two outings.
On offense, the Pirates have the third-lowest batting average in the majors and have averaged 4.1 runs per game over the last month. The Brewers are on the other end of the offensive spectrum, with the fourth-most runs scored over the last month and the fourth-highest wOBA over that span as well.
The Pirates have hit the under in 55% of their games this season, the third-highest mark in the majors. The Brewers have also hit the under slightly more often than the over this season, but have been much better scoring runs overall.
One injury to keep an eye on for this matchup is Christian Yelich (back), who was scratched on Wednesday and sat out Thursday but is expected to return to the lineup this Friday.
Brewers vs. Pirates pick, best bet
Best Bet: Johan Oviedo over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (+120)
Oviedo has allowed three hits or fewer in each of his four MLB games this season, giving up a total of 10 hits in 15 innings. His under 4.5 hits at -125 is solid, but since he has six, five, and six strikeouts in his three starts since his most recent promotion, I also like him to go over this punchout total for plus money. While the Brewers have been good at strikeout suppression, Oviedo even had six strikeouts against the strikeout-averse Blue Jays, so I think he’ll get at least five on Friday.
Strong Lean: 1st 5 innings Under 4.5 runs (-105)
With both starting pitchers being so effective, I think this game will be low scoring until the bullpens get involved, introducing more variables. I like this slighlty better than the under for the whole game, although both are strong plays.
