The Chargers begin their season by “hosting” the Chiefs on Friday in Brazil. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by three points and this game carries a total of 46.5 points.
Below, I have featured my favorite Justin Herbert prop to consider from this contest.
Best Justin Herbert Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Justin Herbert Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Justin Herbert eclipsed this passing yardage total in eight of his 17 regular season starts last year, though notably came up short in both matchups against the Chiefs. That said, it’s worth remembering that two seasons ago, Herbert topped this number in both of his games versus Kansas City.
The Chiefs were a middling pass defense in 2024, ranking 18th in the league and allowing 218.8 yards per game through the air. Their strength was clearly against the run, where they finished as the eighth-best unit in rushing defense. That bodes well for a pass-heavy game plan from the Chargers.
L.A. responded to last season’s offensive struggles by revamping the weapons around Herbert. The return of Keenan Allen provides a trusted veteran presence, and he’ll now be joined by rising star Ladd McConkey, who flashed big-play potential as a rookie. The Chargers also added two promising rookie wideouts in Keandre Lambert-Smith and third-rounder Tre Harris, further deepening their receiving corps.
In the backfield, the team made major upgrades as well — selecting Omarion Hampton in the first round and signing veteran Najee Harris from Pittsburgh. Both backs offer far more as pass-catchers than the limited duo of Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, who were primarily used as two-down runners last year. That improvement in receiving talent — both out wide and in the backfield — should benefit Herbert immensely.
Another wrinkle worth noting: this game will be played at Arena Corinthians — a soccer stadium — which hosted the Eagles-Packers season opener last year. That game turned into a shootout, producing 63 total points, with Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love throwing for 278 and 260 yards respectively. While that doesn’t guarantee a similar outcome here, the fast field conditions could favor the passing game.
All things considered — a retooled offense, a Chiefs defense more vulnerable through the air, and potentially favorable game conditions — Herbert is well-positioned to go over this number as he begins his sixth NFL season. Even if the game doesn’t become a track meet, Kansas City’s stout run defense could funnel the Chargers into leaning on their franchise QB, making the over a strong play.