One of the most important games in the close AL Wild Card race this weekend is the four-game set in Tampa between the surging Rays and the fading Guardians. The Rays took the first game of the series on Thursday, 4-2, and they have won seven straight coming into Friday’s matchup, which begins at 7:35 p.m. ET, weather-permitting.
The Rays’ seven-game streak has them two games over .500 with a 71-69 record. The Guardians dropped below .500 with their loss on Thursday and are 5-10 over their last 15 games after losing four of their last five. Both teams are chasing the Mariners for the third and final AL Wild Card spot. The Rays are just two games back, while the Guardians are now 3.5 games behind.
The Rays are -149 home favorites this Friday with the run total at just 7.5. The weather forecast calls for a cluster of Florida storms around Steinbrenner Field during the game. The Tampa Bay area storms are unpredictable, but there is a chance of a delay or postponement depending on their timing and position. The wind is too light to be much of a factor but is forecast to be blowing in. Let’s preview this Friday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Rays prediction, preview
Possibly in part due to the weather, the Rays are going to use an opener by giving the ball to Griffin Jax. Jax has struggled to a 7.20 ERA and 1.80 WHIP since arriving from the Twins, but he still has strong stuff and good upside, so the Rays will give him a start to try and help him reset.
The plan after Jax is to have exciting rookie lefty Ian Seymour take over for the bulk relief work. Seymour has been very impressive in his two starts against the Nationals and these same Guardians. He went five innings in Cleveland with just one hit and eight strikeouts.
Seymour has worked his way back from Tommy John surgery and has been both in Triple-A and the majors this year. He made 15 starts in 16 games for the Durham Bulls, compiling a 2.62 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.14 WHIP and 104 strikeouts in 86 innings. For the Rays, he has a similar 2.97 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 1.02 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in 33 1/3 innings.
There aren’t any Seymour props on the board, since he isn’t actually starting, but it’s possible to back the Rays’ rookie by playing the Guardians under.
Over the last month, the Guardians are only hitting .199 as a team, averaging a league-low 3.6 runs per game. The under for their team total of 3.5 runs is -120. Another way to back Seymour and the Rays is highlighted in my pick and prediction at the end of this post.
The Guardians will go with a more traditional approach by starting Gavin Williams, who is 9-5 with a 3.26 ERA and 4.55 FIP in his 27 starts this year. Williams didn’t start against the Rays in the recent series between these teams, and he has been boom-or-bust in his last few outings. He is coming off a great home start against the Mariners, in which he threw seven strong innings with four hits and one run allowed. In his previous start, though, he only made it through 3 1/3 against the Rangers since he struggled with his command, issuing four walks.
Overall, Williams has been good against lefties and at home, so if you’re picking props, it makes sense to lean into right-handed hitters, which the Rays have a few great options for.
Junior Caminero is one Rays righty who jumps off the page as a great play, especially since he has mashed all season at home. The 22-year-old has made headlines for his 40 homers, but he has been productive in just about every category at home, hitting .327 at home with a .417 wOBA and 167 wRC+.
Since Aug. 1, Caminero is hitting .300 overall with a .420 wOBA and 13 homers. He is quickly establishing himself as one of the top young hitters in baseball, and he’s got several strong props to consider, including my favorite option highlighted below.
I’d take the Rays to stay hot, but I don’t love the odds on the run line or the moneyline, especially with the Jax and Williams wild cards in play. Instead, I’ve got a couple of prop plays that eliminate some variable and come at better odds.
Guardians vs. Rays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Rays over 8.5 strikeouts thrown (-125)
Seymour has a high strikeout rate, and even Jax has totaled 15 strikeouts in 10 innings with the Rays. Over the last 30 days, the Rays pitchers have the highest K/9 in the majors at 10.3 K/9, while the Guardians hitters have averaged 8.7 strikeouts per game. As long as rain doesn’t shorten this contest, I think the Rays staff should rack up at least nine strikeouts.
Strong Lean: Junior Caminero 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+130)
In his last 30 games, Caminero has 91 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBI) for an average of 3.0 HRR per game. He has 186 HRR in 69 home games (2.7 per game) and at least 3+ HRR in three of his four games on this home stand. A home run is an instant green for this prop, but there are many paths to victory.
