In a three-way clash for the top of the AL East — which the Toronto Blue Jays currently lead by three games over the New York Yankees and 3.5 over the Boston Red Sox — this weekend could be pivotal. Toronto and New York will play each other, which gives Boston to make up ground in the likely event that the Blue Jays and Yankees sweep the series. The Red Sox will face the Arizona Diamondbacks for three games in the desert.
Tonight’s series opener will start at 9:40 p.m. ET. Boston’s star rookie, Payton Tolle, will hope to build on his strong debut, and Arizona will start Eduardo Rodríguez.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction, preview
The Red Sox have been pretty solid as of late, winning 10 of their last 14 games, but those wins have come against a pretty easy schedule: they faced New York four times, the Baltimore Orioles four times, the Pittsburgh Pirates thrice, and the Cleveland Guardians thrice. Regardless, wins are wins, and they’ve needed every one of them to keep pace with a Yankees team that has won eight of its last 10. But Boston will have some adjusting to do, as rookie outfielder Roman Anthony has been ruled out for 4-6 weeks with an oblique strain, likely ending his regular season. The Diamondbacks suffered a major injury of their own this week, as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. sustained a torn ACL on Monday. Regardless, Arizona has won two straight games and is still only 5.5 games behind the third NL Wild Card spot.
Despite the Red Sox losing to the Pittsburgh Pirates in his debut, Tolle had a solid performance, pitching 5.1 innings and giving up three hits and two runs, walking two and striking out eight. His game score was actually higher than his opponent, Paul Skenes, the likely NL Cy Young Award winner. It wasn’t a perfect performance — he hardly induced any chases or ground balls — but both his 1.27 FIP and 2.06 expected ERA indicate that, if anything, he got unlucky. The Diamondbacks’ offense is tricky; even without Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez, who were both traded at the deadline, they have still posted a solid .755 OPS since the start of August, so they should be a bigger challenge than the Pirates were. Regardless, if Tolle can’t shut them down, Boston’s third-ranked bullpen can.
Tolle certainly has the edge in the pitching matchup against Rodríguez. The Venezuelan has had a rough season, recording a 5.40 ERA in his 24 starts, and though he’s coming off of a six-inning shutout performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers, he’s struggled more often than not. In fact, thanks to his combination of solid volume and poor performance, he ranks in just the second percentile in pitching run value, and he’s backed up by a bullpen that has been the league’s fifth-worst this season. Rodríguez has been good at avoiding hard hits and barrels, but the Red Sox have been elite at producing them. Boston should be able to get to Rodríguez easily, even without Anthony in the lineup.
Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Best Bet: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+123)
It’s easy to dismiss Tolle’s debut as beginner’s luck against a mediocre offense in Pittsburgh’s, but all of his numbers, even in Triple-A, are so much more convincing than Rodríguez’s. It’s also probably not a total coincidence that Arizona has struggled offensively in two games without Gurriel, who’s still a productive player despite his down season.
Strong Lean: Payton Tolle 8+ Strikeouts (+600)
These are pretty friendly odds on Tolle, who recorded eight of his 16 outs via strikeout in his debut and eight or more in 10 of his 21 starts across three minor-league levels this season, including seven of the 12 in which he pitched five or more innings. The Diamondbacks have struck out more than all but three teams in the last 30 days, and Gurriel was one of their least strikeout-prone players.
