This is the opener of a three-game series in Chicago between the Cubs and visiting Washington Nationals.
Jake Irvin is scheduled to pitch for Washington, while Javier Assad is slated to start for Chicago.
Nationals at Cubs prediction, preview
Jake Irvin is the definition of an innings eater. Last season, he pitched 187.2 innings and posted a 4.41 FIP with a 4.41 ERA. He’s gone 154.1 innings so far this season, but both the ERA and FIP have increased — to 5.42 and 5.56, respectively. The fastball is down to 92.4 mph from 94.1 mph last season. His strikeout rate is just 15.2%, and the swinging strike rate is 7.5%. The average exit velocity is 90.6 mph, the barrel rate is 11.9%, and the hard-hit rate is 47.4%. Irvin has given up 31 home runs.
Twenty of those 31 home runs have come off the bats of lefties, and 18 have been surrendered on the road. Outside of the home run discrepancy, most of Irvin’s splits are similar between righties and lefties. While his numbers have generally been better on the road, the long ball remains a major issue away from home.
In 28 starts this season, Irvin has allowed more than three earned runs 11 times. He’s gone at least six innings in 14 of those starts. He faced Chicago back in mid-June at home, going five innings with two walks and three strikeouts, while allowing three earned runs on eight hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs rank 27th in strikeout rate and sixth in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 10th in the MLB.
Javier Assad opened the season on the injured list due to an oblique injury. He made his season debut in August and has pitched 20 innings across four starts. He owns a 4.05 ERA with a 4.64 FIP. The fastball is averaging 92.3 mph, but the strikeout rate is a paltry 11.8%. His swinging strike rate is 5.9%, and his chase rate is only 21.9%. That said, Assad has done a decent job limiting hard contact — his average exit velocity is 88.7 mph, barrel rate is 4.5%, and hard-hit rate is 35.8%. He’s allowed just two home runs.
Both home runs were allowed on the road. His K-BB% is only 3.7% against lefties. At home, it’s 11.1%, compared to 4.5% on the road.
Assad went just four innings in his first two starts, allowing four earned runs in his season debut. In his last two outings, however, he’s gone six innings in each. This will be his first time facing Washington this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Nationals have the 23rd-highest strikeout rate, the 25th-best ISO, and rank 20th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Washington ranks 24th in FIP, while Chicago ranks fifth.
Nationals at Cubs pick, best bet
This game has an over/under of 10.5, with winds forecasted to blow out to right field at around 14 mph in Chicago. I’m concerned that Irvin — along with the Nationals bullpen — could get lit up in this one.
