These are my picks to win every Week 1 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 1 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Cardinals over Saints
The Saints might be spending another season as one of the worst teams in the NFL. After starting the season with two big offensive performances that led to wins, the Saints went 3-12 the rest of the way. That was partially due to the injury to Derek Carr, forcing the Saints to use the inexperienced Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener at quarterback. The Saints took Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough in the second round of the NFL Draft, but he was unable to beat out Rattler over the summer, which could be troubling for New Orleans. With a healthy Kyler Murray, the Cardinals should handle business and win this one.
Broncos over Titans
The Titans were the worst team in the NFL last season, earning them the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. They decided to move on from the Will Levis experiment, drafting Miami quarterback Cam Ward with the top pick. Ward doesn’t need to reach his full potential to be an instant upgrade over Levis. However, the roster around Ward is still weak in plenty of spots. The Broncos had the best defense in the NFL last season and will be a tough first test for Ward. The Broncos should win this one as they look to put together another strong season.
Eagles over Cowboys
The defending Super Bowl champions open the season on Thursday night against their division rivals. The Micah Parsons-less Cowboys will be heading to Philadelphia into what should be an immense atmosphere. Division games are always tricky, and the Cowboys should have a good offense with Dak Prescott back, but the Eagles will, at the very least, find a way to win this game at home.
Bengals over Browns
The Browns are another team that could be in for a second straight brutal season. Their quarterback situation is still in disarray, with Joe Flacco set to be the starter and Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders backing him up. They are unsure if their rookie running back, Quinshon Judkins, will even play this season due to his off-the-field issues. Everything around this team has been bad vibes ever since they traded for Deshaun Watson. Meanwhile, the Bengals know they need to start their season strong to avoid missing the playoffs again. Joe Burrow should lead his team to an opening week win in Cleveland.
Commanders over Giants
The Commanders had a special 2024-25 season, going to the NFC Championship Game under rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. They were able to extend wide receiver Terry McLaurin and bring back most of their key pieces from last season. While it will be hard to repeat the success they found last season, they should start the season with a win over the Giants. New York should be improved with Abdul Carter added to its already solid defensive line and an upgraded quarterback situation. However, the home team often finds a way to win these divisional home games so the Commanders should handle their business.
Medium Confidence
Chiefs over Chargers
The Chiefs are looking to win the AFC West for the 10th straight season in 2025-26. They have also won the AFC three straight years, but they are somehow annually overlooked in favor of teams like the Bills and Ravens. Patrick Mahomes is 6-1 in his career in Week 1 and is an absurd 35-5 against the AFC West in his career. That includes a 10-2 record against the Chargers. Los Angeles is hoping to take the next step in Year 2 under Jim Harbaugh with some exciting young pieces. However, it’s nearly impossible to pick against Mahomes in these divisional games.
Jaguars over Panthers
The 2021 No. 1 overall pick and the 2023 No. 1 overall pick will face off to open the season. Trevor Lawrence has been unable to take the Jaguars to the heights that so many hoped for in Jacksonville. They have some exciting young weapons in Jacksonville, namely Brian Thomas Jr. and the No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, Travis Hunter. The Panthers showed some signs of improvement on offense in the second half of last season. However, they could still struggle on the defensive end, allowing the Jaguars to squeak out a Week 1 win at home.
49ers over Seahawks
The 49ers are looking to bounce back after their worst season since 2018-19. Prior to last season, they had made the NFC Championship Game four of the previous five years. The 49ers were riddled with injuries last season, and they were never able to find a groove. If they can stay healthy this season, they should get back to being one of the NFL’s best teams. The Seahawks should be a solid team, but in their first game with new quarterback Sam Darnold, I will back the 49ers to pull off the road upset.
Patriots over Raiders
These two teams are both beginning a new era this season. In Las Vegas, Pete Carroll is in at head coach, with Geno Smith at quarterback and Ashton Jeanty at running back. In New England, Mike Vrabel is the new head coach and Drake Maye is going to start the year as the QB1. Both teams could take some time to adjust with new pieces and a new staff, but the Patriots should find a way to win at home. Maye got some valuable experience last season and now has more weapons to work with. Las Vegas should have an exciting offense once it starts to click, but that might take a few weeks.
Jets over Steelers
Aaron Rodgers is facing his former team to start the 2025-26 season. Rodgers is hoping for more success in Pittsburgh than he found in New York, but it will likely be more of the same for the Steelers, winning between 8-10 games and losing in the Wild Card Round. Rodgers arguably has worse weapons in Pittsburgh than he had in New York, but a better coaching staff. Justin Fields will also be facing his former team, making his first start for the Jets. The Jets also have a brand new coaching staff, led by Aaron Glenn. The Jets are unlikely to achieve much this season, but the new coaching staff should display competency not seen in New York in a long time. Fields is capable of big plays, and as long as he avoids any big mistakes, the Jets could steal a win at home to start the season.
Coin-Flip Games
Rams over Texans
The Rams got some good news this week, which is that Matthew Stafford is expected to start this game. There were concerns around a back injury that could keep Stafford out to start the season, but he is reportedly ready to go. With weapons like Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams to work with, this offense should be exciting to watch. This will be a tough battle against the Texans, but at home, the Rams should find a way to win.
Lions over Packers
This is a highly anticipated matchup between two NFC North contenders. The Packers are all in this season after trading for Micah Parsons from the Cowboys. They have an elite EDGE added to a solid defense, and drafted who they hope to be a WR1 for Jordan Love, Matthew Golden from Texas. The Lions need to prove that they won’t lose a step with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn both on new teams. However, they have proven that they are the class of the division over the past couple of seasons, and in a true coin-flip game, I will back them for that reason.
Dolphins over Colts
The Colts announced that Daniel Jones will be their starting quarterback in Week 1. That is enough reason to back the Dolphins in this game. There are reasons to distrust Miami, especially over the course of a full season, but while Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, that’s when you want to back them. This team went off a cliff offensively when Tagovailoa got injured last season, and it would do so again if it had to turn to Zach Wilson at any point. Miami still has some great weapons, and as long as Tagovailoa is healthy, it has a significant quarterback advantage. That should be enough to win the Dolphins this game.
Falcons over Buccaneers
The Falcons and Buccaneers played two thrillers last season, with Atlanta winning both matchups. They put up 36 points in an overtime win in Atlanta and scored 30 points in a win in Tampa Bay. This offense should be electric with Michael Penix Jr. at the helm, dishing it to Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Buccaneers have an exciting offense themselves, but they have already suffered some injuries before the season even starts. Atlanta should set the tone as serious NFC South contenders with a win in this opening game.
Ravens over Bills
The Ravens and Bills face off on the opening Sunday Night Football game of the season. Buffalo took down Baltimore in the AFC Divisional Round last season, but the Ravens dominated the regular-season matchup between the two teams early in the season. These will be two of the best teams in the NFL once again, but the Ravens have a slight edge at this point. Between Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson and the revamped defense, they are a scary team to face. This should be a great game, but the Ravens have the better defense on paper, meaning they should win the game.
Bears over Vikings
The Bears and Vikings are facing off in a fascinating game, which is the hardest to predict in Week 1. J.J. McCarthy is making his first NFL start for the Vikings, while Ben Johnson coaches his first game for the Bears. Only time will tell if one of the league’s great offensive minds can unleash Caleb Williams’ full potential. On the other side, McCarthy could take some time to get up to speed at the NFL level. He has great weapons to work with and a stellar coaching staff, but he could make some rookie mistakes, like the ones Williams made last season, that allow the Bears to snatch a win.
