The endless offseason wait is over. Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, and with it comes fantasy leagues, daily fantasy, betting and survivor pools. You can enter the DraftKings $1M+ NFL Survivor pool for just $10 here.
In this survivor pool, you need to pick a team to win straight-up every week. However, once you use a team, you cannot use it again. You are eliminated from the pool if one of your picks loses. The players who survive all 18 weeks of the regular season without losing will split the grand prize of at least $1,000,000.
Week 1 Strategy
Season-long NFL survivor pools are one of the most fun ways to stay in on the NFL action all season long. With just one entry fee, you get weekly action with a different team every week. One of the most fun parts of survivor pools is assessing your risk every week. Of course, the most important thing is that you win every week. However, if your long-term goal is to win the pool, you need to think further ahead than that. The best thing to do before the season starts is to look ahead at the NFL schedule for the whole season and circle a couple of spots each week that seem like strong picks. For example, the Falcons host the Saints in the final week of the season. A lot can change between now and then, but the Falcons should be considerable favorites in that game. One long-term strategy could be to save the Falcons all season to use in Week 18, just in case you are still in your pool.
Another important strategy to utilize on a weekly basis is trying to avoid the most popular pick. The Eagles are 8.5-point favorites on opening night against the Cowboys. Between being huge favorites, the defending champions and playing in prime time, they will be a very trendy pick. If picking the biggest favorite every week was an effective strategy, a lot of people would go perfect in these pools. Even if you’re very confident in the Eagles winning that game, it’s worth avoiding the popular picks because that is how you win. In almost every NFL season, there is a massive upset in the first couple of weeks. If most of your pool is on the biggest favorite of that week, and that team loses, all of a sudden, your competition is cut in half because you avoided the public play.
Besides avoiding the most popular picks, there are several other traps to avoid if possible. It is typically best to avoid divisional matchups, if possible, especially on the road. For example, the Bengals are facing the Browns in Cleveland in Week 1. On paper, Joe Burrow’s Bengals should dominate a bad Browns team in that game. However, in divisional games with so much familiarity between the two sides, there is a much higher likelihood of an upset. It’s also important to avoid games with variable weather or possible injuries. That’s not as much of an issue this early in the season, but once games with severe cold, rain, wind and snow become a factor, those should be avoided whenever possible. Variable conditions will always increase the chances of an upset. Additionally, if a key player, especially a quarterback, is “going to give it a go” but might not actually be healthy, just avoid that team.
Week 1 Survivor Best Pick
Broncos over Titans
My favorite pick for Week 1 is the Broncos over the Titans. This will certainly be a trendy pick as the Broncos are 8.5-point favorites, but this is too good a spot to pass up. Prior to Caleb Williams last season, a No. 1 overall pick starting in Week 1 had not won since David Carr in 2002. Ironically, Williams and the Bears only won that game because the player Cam Ward is replacing, Will Levis, gave the game away with horrific turnovers. Even if Cam Ward hits, this is a brutal first test. Any quarterback’s first NFL game is tough. Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels both lost their season openers last year and went on to have great seasons. However, Cam Ward has to face the team that had the best defense in the NFL in one of the best road environments in football. The Broncos are well-coached, have an elite defense, and have the home crowd and the Denver altitude on their side.
Week 1 Survivor Bold Pick
Cardinals over Saints
If you want to emphasize avoiding the trendier picks, the Cardinals over the Saints is a solid play that should be less popular than the Eagles and the Broncos. It is a road game, and the Cardinals were not a playoff team last year, meaning fewer people will want to play them this early in the season. However, fading the Saints all year could prove to be an effective strategy. They were one of the worst teams in the NFL last season and will be starting Spencer Rattler at quarterback, who has not proven he can do the job at the NFL level yet. While Kyler Murray is fully healthy, it is a good time to target the Cardinals.
Week 1 Survivor Favorite to Avoid
Commanders over Giants
The Commanders over the Giants will be a popular play. The Commanders were the best story in the league last season, making the NFC Championship Game with their rookie quarterback. A lot of people made a lot of money betting on Washington all season and will have positive memories in their minds. Meanwhile, the Giants were one of the worst teams in the NFL. However, by bringing in multiple quarterbacks who are upgrades over Daniel Jones, adding a potential superstar EDGE in Abdul Carter and bringing back Malik Nabers at wide receiver for his second season, the Giants should be much improved. The Commanders won both matchups against New York last season, but by a combined eight points. Prior to that, Washington was winless in their previous four games against the Giants. These divisional games are always risky, but the Giants are trending up, while Washington might see some regression this season, making this a game to avoid.
